Rosario Board of Trade estimates Argentina’s 2025/26 wheat crop at 27.7 million tonnes, underpinned by 7.17 million hectares planted and an average yield of 41.0 qq/ha. USDA forecasts exports at 14.5 million tonnes and ending stocks at 6.0 million tonnes, pointing to Brazil as the key destination for Argentine wheat flows.
Argentina is on track for a record 2025/26 wheat crop, with the Rosario Board of Trade (BCR) lifting its production estimate to 27.7 million tonnes, a level that would surpass the country’s previous production peak (23.0 million tonnes in 2021/22) by 4.7 million tonnes.
With harvesting largely advanced, Argentina’s Agriculture Secretariat (MAGyP) reported national wheat harvest progress at 87% as of December 23, 2025, reinforcing market expectations that the crop is moving from forecast to pipeline reality.
BCR attributes the record projection to a combination of expanded wheat area and exceptional yields. The exchange pegs planted area at 7.17 million hectares, assumes 400,000 hectares will remain unharvested, and lifts the national average yield to 41.0 qq/ha, resulting in the 27.7 Mt output estimate.
HIGHER ENDING STOCKS RAISE THE BAR FOR EXPORT COMPETITIVENESS
Large supply does not automatically translate into smooth export execution. USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) in Buenos Aires forecasts Argentina’s 2025/26 wheat exports at 14.5 million tonnes, while noting that early-season export registrations were still limited—2.7 million tonnes of sworn export declarations at the time of its latest update. Brazil remains the anchor outlet. FAS cites market contacts projecting ~6 million tonnes of wheat shipments to Brazil, with additional flows expected toward Southeast Asia and selected African destinations.
At the same time, larger supplies may lift inventories. FAS projects 2025/26 ending stocks at 6.0 million tonnes (up 2.7 million), with a significant share held in on-farm silo bags and cooperatives—an important factor for the pacing of farmer selling and exporter origination.
Argentina’s government has reduced export taxes on wheat and barley from 9.5% to 7.5%, a policy move that can support export parity and improve producer netbacks at the margin. However, the global market backdrop remains heavy. The USDA’s December WASDE notes the 2025/26 global wheat outlook as higher supplies, consumption, trade and ending stocks, underscoring why price competition is likely to remain intense.