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AMIS highlights shifts in crop plantings amidst price changes

19 April 20243 min reading

According to the monthly Market Monitor from the Agricultural Market Information System (AMIS), export prices for maize and wheat have recently decreased, offering relief to importers grappling with escalating freight and insurance expenses caused by disruptions in shipping. The report anticipates that farmers will adjust to narrower profit margins by diversifying into other crops. Additionally, in response to heightened demand for biofuels driven by increasing crude oil prices, some farmers are anticipated to transition from maize to soybeans.

One of the most significant observations from the AMIS report is the easing of maize and wheat export prices, which comes as a welcome relief for importers grappling with the escalating costs of freight and insurance due to disruptions in shipping. This development has prompted farmers to adjust to narrower profit margins by diversifying into alternative crops. Consequently, winter wheat plantings for the 2024 harvest season have declined in both Ukraine and the United States. However, the shortfall in winter wheat plantings might be offset by increased spring plantings in some regions. Moreover, there's a notable trend of farmers shifting away from maize towards soybeans, driven by the rising crude oil prices that bolster demand for biofuels.


DIVERSE WHEAT CROP CONDITIONS ACROSS REGIONS

AMIS also provided assessments on the global grain production outlook. According to the report, across various regions, wheat crop conditions exhibit a mixed picture. In the European Union (EU), adverse winter weather has hampered crop development, necessitating plans for resowing in some areas. Conversely, in Türkiye, favorable weather conditions have accelerated crop growth. In Ukraine, despite concerns over the ongoing conflict affecting agriculture in certain regions, warm temperatures and supportive soil moisture conditions have led to earlier-than-usual regrowth of winter wheat. Meanwhile, in Russia, stable conditions prevail with additional precipitation forecasted. Similar positive trends are observed in China and India, while the United States and Canada also report generally favorable conditions for winter wheat.

CORN

In Brazil, harvesting of the spring-planted corn crop is progressing amidst mixed conditions, particularly in the Southeast region. Sowing for the summer-planted crop is nearing completion, albeit with concerns arising from irregular rainfall and high temperatures in certain regions. Argentina experiences delays in harvesting the early-planted crop due to widespread rains, while conditions for the late-planted crop remain generally favorable. South Africa grapples with the adverse impact of hot and dry conditions on summer grain production. Elsewhere, favorable conditions are reported in India for the Rabi crop, with sowing underway in regions like the US and China.

GLOBAL RICE OUTLOOK

In China and India, favorable conditions prevail for rice cultivation, with harvesting and sowing activities progressing smoothly. Bangladesh reports favorable conditions for the development of the Boro crop and the onset of sowing for the Aus crop. Viet Nam experiences mixed conditions for dry-season rice cultivation, while Thailand faces challenges from hot and dry weather affecting crop development. In Brazil and the US, harvesting and sowing activities continue under generally favorable conditions.

“Although overall crop conditions at the end of March do not raise alarm, market-driven adjustments to planting areas could impact sentiment on the global markets should significant weather events occur during the rest of the season,” the report warned.

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