With the world’s population projected to reach 10 billion by mid-century and limited arable land for expansion, increasing agricultural productivity remains crucial for ensuring global food security. While concerns have been raised about stagnating yield growth in key food commodities, a recent study by AMIS (Agricultural Market Information System) and its partners at the World Bank Group suggests a more nuanced reality.
According to the AMIS report, which analyzed production and caloric data from 144 major crops between 1961 and 2021—representing 98% of the world’s agricultural land—there is no clear evidence of long-term global yield growth deceleration. Instead, yield stagnation in certain regions and commodities has been offset by accelerated growth in others.
Over the past six decades, global crop production has nearly quadrupled in calorific terms, with over two-thirds of this growth attributed to yield improvements. Aggregate global yield rose from approximately 4,330 KCal/ha in 1961 to nearly 11,000 KCal/ha in 2021. This increase is equivalent to an annual gain of 33 kilograms of wheat per hectare, closely aligning with the 152% rise in the global population over the same period.
The report underscores the significant contribution of four major crops—wheat, maize, rice, and soybeans—to global food production. These “Big-4” commodities accounted for nearly 60% of total production growth, with their average yields tripling from 4,826 KCal/ha in 1961 to 14,323 KCal/ha in 2021. In contrast, the remaining 140 crops experienced yield growth of less than 100% over the same period, with their 2021 calorific yield amounting to only half that of the Big-4.
The study also found that yield growth rates varied across different country groupings. Advanced economies saw aggregate yield growth of 76 KCal/ha per year, while emerging markets and developing economies experienced faster rates—95 KCal/ha per year before 1993 and 109 KCal/ha per year afterward.
CHALLENGES FOR FUTURE FOOD SECURITY
Despite past yield advancements, several pressing challenges must be addressed to meet future food demand, which is projected to increase by one-third over the next 30 years. The AMIS report identifies three key areas of concern:
Climate Change and Weather Volatility: The increasing frequency and intensity of extreme weather events pose a significant threat to agricultural productivity. Climate change is expected to alter regional production patterns and contribute to yield volatility. Developing climate-resilient crop varieties will be essential to maintaining historical yield growth trends.
Trade and Policy Barriers: Restrictive trade policies continue to impact food availability in regions facing production deficits. Despite past agricultural trade reforms, global food trade remains affected by protectionist policies and domestic subsidies. Additionally, policies that divert food crops to biofuel production must balance environmental and energy security concerns with food supply needs.
Food Access and Inequality: Ensuring sufficient global food supplies does not necessarily translate to equitable access, particularly in low-income countries. Conflict, extreme weather events, and economic instability have contributed to a rise in acute food insecurity, with over 280 million people affected in 2023. Addressing this challenge requires targeted financial assistance, strategic food aid programs, and investments in productivity-enhancing measures. Reducing food waste at the production level will also be critical in alleviating food shortages.