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Sudhakar Tomar, President of the India Middle East Agri Alliance (IMEAA) Ecosystem, says the Middle East conflict and pressure on the Strait of Hormuz have exposed deeper vulnerabilities in global food and fertilizer supply chains, raising risks for grain, pulses and feed markets from the Gulf to South Asia and Africa.

In an April 7 blog post published by the International Food Policy Research Institute, or IFPRI, agricultural economists Shawn Arita and Joseph Glauber argue that the current Iran crisis is affecting global agriculture mainly through fertilizer and energy markets, not through a direct disruption in grain supply.

The war in the Middle East is not hitting global grain markets through a direct collapse in wheat or corn supply, at least not yet.

The war in the Middle East and the disruption surrounding the Strait of Hormuz have added a new layer of instability to regional grain and oilseed markets, with the impact extending far beyond the Gulf itself.

The deepening crisis in the Strait of Hormuz has transcended simple increases in freight and insurance costs, fundamentally altering the decision-making patterns of global grain market players.

As the geopolitical standoff in the Strait of Hormuz sends ripples through global commodity markets, the focus has shifted from abstract "supply-and-demand" charts to the gritty reality of maritime logistics.

Rising freight risks, tightening fertilizer markets and uncertainty around Middle East shipping routes could push global grain prices higher, even as many traders still frame the Hormuz crisis as a demand-negative shock, Andrey Sizov, managing director of Black Sea grain consultancy SovEcon, told Miller Magazine.