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When macroeconomic balances deteriorate, the effects spread across the wheat value chain: input costs rise, financing burdens deepen, public regulation becomes more expensive, and milling margins come under pressure.

EuroGrainExchange returns to Bucharest for the fourth year in a row on 23–24 April 2026, bringing global grain and oilseed leaders together for two days of market debate and structured networking.

The International Grains Council’s February Grain Market Report pegs 2025/26 world total grains production at a record 2,460m tonnes, while flagging a slightly tighter early outlook for 2026/27 wheat amid expectations of a smaller crop and rising consumption.

International Grains Council (IGC) Senior Economist Alexander Karavaytsev told delegates at the TUSAF Congress that world grain output is set to post a third consecutive record, with a 130 million tonne year-on-year increase—the largest in 12 years—pushing the market back into surplus and lifting global stocks to their highest level in six years.

Dmitri Rylko, Director of Moscow-based IKAR, told TUSAF delegates in Antalya that a surging ruble, rising logistics costs and an unusual quality mix are slowing Russia’s wheat export pace—so far reaching only 62% of its export potential.

The pendulum of the global agri-commodity market has swung violently. After three years defined by deficits, weather shocks, and price spikes, 2026 has dawned as the year of "Recalibration."

Volatility is now a defining feature of grain markets, but margin damage is still more often caused by organisational and behavioural failures than by price moves themselves.

Better yields in Siberia prompted SovEcon to raise its 2025 Russia wheat estimate by 0.2 MMT to 88.8 MMT and barley by 0.1 MMT to 19.4 MMT, with total grain production now seen at 136.2 MMT.

Global Grain Geneva 2025 revealed that even as record harvests and ample stocks suggest a “comfortable” balance, the real battle for grain is being fought on other boards: geopolitics, finance and technology.