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When macroeconomic balances deteriorate, the effects spread across the wheat value chain: input costs rise, financing burdens deepen, public regulation becomes more expensive, and milling margins come under pressure.

Türkiye’s flour exports fell to 2.36 million metric tons in 2025, but a sharp rise in shipments to Syria helped cushion the downturn after Iraq’s purchases contracted steeply, the head of IAOM Eurasia said.

The International Grains Council’s February Grain Market Report pegs 2025/26 world total grains production at a record 2,460m tonnes, while flagging a slightly tighter early outlook for 2026/27 wheat amid expectations of a smaller crop and rising consumption.

SovEcon, a leading consultancy specializing in Black Sea grain markets, has raised its 2026/27 Russian wheat crop forecast by 2.1 million metric tons (MMT) to 85.9 MMT, reflecting better-than-average crop conditions heading into late winter.

International Grains Council (IGC) Senior Economist Alexander Karavaytsev told delegates at the TUSAF Congress that world grain output is set to post a third consecutive record, with a 130 million tonne year-on-year increase—the largest in 12 years—pushing the market back into surplus and lifting global stocks to their highest level in six years.

The FoodAgro Meetup in Dubai brought Ukrainian producers together with international partners, underscoring how the MENA region is increasingly shaping Black Sea grain flows. Market speakers noted that MENA consistently imports more than 60 million tonnes of wheat a year, keeping demand resilient even when global consumption looks flat.

Kazakhstan plans to channel $2.6 billion into deep grain processing projects by 2028, aiming to move beyond bulk commodity exports and sell higher-margin products.

The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) launched its 2024 Statistical Yearbook, offering an in-depth overview of the most significant trends shaping global agrifood systems.