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While the immediate impact on wheat prices remains relatively limited, the Hormuz crisis is pushing up freight, fuel, insurance and fertilizer costs, adding a new layer of pressure to global trade. Benoît Fayaud of Expana warns that the bigger risk lies not in current wheat flows, but in shrinking farm margins, quality risks and weaker planting incentives that could weigh more heavily on the 2026/27 and especially 2027/28 wheat outlook.