Miller Magazine Issue 192 - December 2025

MILLER • DECEMBER 2025 36 At AgroFoodSummit 2025 in Mersin, Areté’s Filippo Bertuzzi warned that while global durum supplies are recovering and prices are easing, a potential US tariff shock on Italian pasta could become the next disruptive force for the market. Global durum wheat fundamentals look far less tense than in recent seasons. Speaking at AgroFoodSummit 2025 in Mersin, Türkiye, Filippo Bertuzzi, Senior Market An- alyst at Italian consultancy Areté, said world production in the 2025/26 marketing year is up by around 1–1.2 million tonnes compared with last season, mark- ing a second consecutive year of stock rebuilding. The recovery is driven by better har- vests in both key demand and supply regions. Italy – the EU’s largest durum importer and the backbone of its pasta industry – harvested a much larger crop this year, with output rising by roughly 15%, or more than 1.1 million tonnes, year- on-year. North Africa has also enjoyed an improved season after three years of intense drought, even if production remains slightly below its long-term av- erage. On the supply side, Canada and the United States form what Bertuzzi described as a single “ex- port box” of exceptional size. Combined durum production there is close to 9 million tonnes, a level he characterised as a record for the past two decades. Türkiye, by contrast, has faced a more difficult season. Dry weather pulled production down from last year’s highs, although volumes remain on the upper side of historical ranges. Other exporters in the wider Black Sea and CIS region show a similar pattern: slightly below last year’s peaks but still at comfortable levels. Overall, Bertuzzi concluded, “this is a pretty comfortable production picture worldwide” for durum. MEXICOBECOMES ANET IMPORTER If there is one structural change on the supply map, it is Mexico. Once a key producer, the country has dropped out of the world’s top six after a sharp decline in output. “Very dry conditions during planting pre- vented sowing,” Bertuzzi explained. As a result, Mexican production has fallen by about 1 million tonnes, and the country has effectively become a net importer of durum for the first time. That reversal is one of the few “new and unusual” elements in an otherwise familiar landscape of Mediterranean importers and North American exporters. Durum wheat balance eases, but looming US–Italy pasta tariff dispute clouds the outlook NEWS