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As India enters the marketing year (MY) 2026/27 (April 2026 to March 2027), the wheat sector stands at a pivotal juncture, balancing robust production prospects with evolving trade policies and market dynamics.

The World Bank projects a modest dip in its agricultural price index this year, with food and raw-material prices broadly steady—but warns that extreme weather, shifts in U.S.–China trade policy, fertiliser costs and biofuel demand could quickly reprice markets.