Ukraine’s corn exports are projected to rise in the 2025-26 marketing year (October-September) from last season, as higher production and ample supply are expected to offset harvest delays and ongoing logistical disruptions, according to S&P Global Energy CERA analysts. Corn exports are forecast at 24.5 million mt in MY 2025-26, up from 20.0 million mt in MY 2024-25, the analysis said.

The analysis, authored by Amrutha Dileep Chingoroth of S&P Global Energy, said the export pace started slowly: as of Dec. 1, Ukraine had shipped 3.7 million mt, 46.9% lower than a year earlier, according to the Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food.

Ukraine-based traders interviewed for the report said exports should gradually improve as market participants adjust to wartime constraints. “We are trying to adapt,” Ukraine Grain Association President Nikolay Gorbachov said, adding that “The logistics situation in Ukraine is unpredictable.”

HARVEST DELAYS; PRODUCTION STILL SEEN HIGHER

Ukraine’s corn production is expected to rise 18% year on year to 31.5 million metric tons in MY 2025-26, though S&P Global Energy CERA analysts revised their estimate down by 0.9 million mt from an earlier 32.4 million mt forecast due to lower yields.

Harvest progress has lagged last year after rains delayed fieldwork. As of Dec. 4, Ukraine had harvested 23.5 million mt, covering 78% of expected area, with average yields at 6.8 mt/hectare, the report said.

EU DEMAND SEEN STEADY; ITALY, SPAIN AND NETHERLANDS KEY SO FAR

The EU is expected to remain the primary destination for Ukrainian corn this season, with significant demand also coming from Turkey and Egypt, according to traders and brokers cited in the analysis. Italy, Spain and the Netherlands have been key destinations so far, and Black Sea traders expect Italy to be a significant market in 2026 given poor crop yields in Romania and Serbia, which have traditionally supplied Italy. A seller from Ukraine added: “We expect more demand from the EU and MENA (Middle East and North Africa) for January, February and March", the report said.

PRICES PRESSURED BY SUPPLY GLUT; DELAYS LIFT EARLY-SEASON COSTS

Regional traders said new-crop corn prices were lower than old-crop and below last year’s levels due to ample supply, but harvest delays and logistical disruptions have increased purchasing costs at the start of MY 2025-26.

Platts assessed Ukraine corn FOB POC at $217.5/mt on Dec. 15, prices were $213/mt on Oct. 6, the analysis said.