Russia’s wheat production is expected to edge lower in the 2026-27 marketing year (July–June) as farmers shift acreage and investment toward higher-margin oilseeds, potentially tightening global supply even as Black Sea exports remain heavy, according to an S&P Global Energy analysis.

S&P Global Energy CERA projects Russian wheat output at 84.1 million metric tons in MY 2026–27, down from 88.2 million in MY 2025–26. Consultancy SovEcon forecasts 83.8 million, while the Institute of Agricultural Market Studies (IKAR) estimates 86 million–91 million, noting the outlook remains preliminary and could be revised.

Market participants cited in the analysis said the softer Russian outlook reflects two key factors: a sharp decline in spring wheat acreage even as winter wheat area holds broadly steady, and reduced spending on equipment and fertilizers as budgets tighten and oilseeds draw more attention.

BLACK SEA PRICES UNDER PRESSURE

Despite the production downgrade, near-term pricing signals remain bearish. The analysis, co-authored by Lalita Avd and Vivian Iroanya, said Black Sea wheat prices are being weighed down by ample port-side supplies after a strong harvest, as well as improving southern hemisphere crop prospects in Argentina and Australia, intensifying export competition.

Russia’s export market has also trended lower since mid-November, primarily affecting 12.5% protein wheat, with prices falling to a two-and-a-half-month low of $227/mt on Dec. 1, the analysis said. Platts, part of S&P Global Energy, assessed its Milling Wheat Marker at $229.39/mt on Dec. 15, unchanged day-on-day.

CERA analysts put Russia’s wheat export projection at 43 million mt, adding that a strong export pace and a possible quota increase to nearly 20 million mt on Feb. 15 could prompt revisions.

The report added that exporters are monitoring currency moves, noting the ruble was around Rb76.8/$1 on Dec. 10, a level that can influence domestic pricing dynamics for farmers and exporters.

UKRAINE SEEKS TO MAXIMISE EXPORTS 

On the Ukraine side, the analysis said wheat exports are expected to rise in the second half of MY 2025–26 as the country tries to maximise shipments given limited storage capacity and the heightened risk of airstrike damage.

War-related disruptions continue to inflate internal logistics costs, Ukrainian exporters told S&P Global Energy. One local trader said: “Rail costs increased by 20%-25% over the past month, while trucks by around 10%,” citing vehicle and driver shortages, damage to trucks and frequent electricity outages.

BUYERS WATCH SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE ARRIVALS

On the demand side, the analysis said key importers may remain cautious, delaying purchases as they await potentially more attractive prices once southern hemisphere supplies arrive.

A Black Sea-based trade source said: “Large wheat buyers like Egypt may soon pause purchases as they wait for the Southern Hemisphere crop to reach the market,” adding that buyers may reassess procurement once new-crop flows gain momentum.

TURKEY IMPORTS REVISED HIGHER; EU OUTPUT SEEN DOWN

Beyond the Black Sea, the report flagged shifts in other major importing and producing regions. After severe drought hit domestic output, Turkey’s wheat imports are expected to rise, with the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Foreign Agricultural Service in Turkey revising its MY 2025–26 wheat import projection to 7.3 million mt, more than double last year’s 3.3 million mt, the analysis said.

In the European Union, CERA analysts forecast wheat production at 132.9 million mt, down 9 million mt from MY 2025–26 estimates. Principal Analyst Khrystyna Kornetska with CERA said: “We expect lower harvested areas for wheat, barley, and corn due to ample 2025-26 crops in the EU and globally, and lower farmer margins. In contrast, EU oilseed areas are likely to rise as farmers shift land from grains to higher-margin oilseeds,”

Field conditions have been mixed across the EU. A Bulgaria-based trade source said: “Planting campaign is a bit delayed due to very wet weather, especially in the Balkans. This might actually reduce the acreage for 2026, and farmers will look for alternatives to put more spring crops,” while noting crops have so far developed well thanks to moderate temperatures and ample moisture.

Looking into early 2026, the same source added: “My personal expectation is for wheat prices to peak in early Q1 2026 and then, depending on the weather, ease toward the harvest due to ample supplies,”