SovEcon, a leading Black Sea grain consultancy, has revised its 2024 Russian grain crop forecasts. The total grain crop forecast has been increased due to higher estimates for wheat and barley, while the corn production forecast has been significantly lowered.

The wheat crop estimate has been raised to 84.7 million metric tons (MMT), up from 84.1 MMT in early July and 80.7 MMT in June. Andrey Sizov, head of SovEcon, stated: “Weather conditions have been challenging for the new wheat crop in the majority of regions of the European part of Russia, whether it’s drought or spring frosts. However, conditions to the east of the Volga have been favorable throughout almost all of 2024. We expect to see above-average yields in the eastern part of the Volga Valley, the Urals, and Siberia.”

The overall grain crop forecast has been increased to 131 MMT, compared to 127.4 MMT in June. Barley production is now estimated at 19.3 MMT, up from 18.6 MMT in June, while the corn estimate has been reduced to 13.4 MMT from 14.6 MMT.

The barley crop estimate has been raised due to relatively high yields of winter barley in the South and a slightly larger planted area. The spring barley yield estimate has also been marginally increased due to favorable crop conditions east of the Volga.

The corn crop forecast has been noticeably lowered due to the current hot weather, which has already caused significant damage to late crops, particularly in the South. Further reductions in the corn crop estimate cannot be ruled out.