As wheat demand in North Africa climbs to over 46 million tons, Black Sea suppliers are swiftly reshaping regional trade flows, displacing the EU’s historical dominance.

North Africa, a region that accounts for roughly 15% of global wheat imports, is undergoing a significant realignment in its wheat sourcing strategy. According to the latest USDA Grain: World Markets and Trade report, total wheat imports to the region are forecast to reach 32.25 million metric tons in the 2025/26 season, up from the previous year, defying the global trend of declining wheat trade. This steady rise is driven by persistent and growing demand for this staple crop across Egypt, Libya, Tunisia, Algeria, and Morocco—despite a more than 10% drop in global wheat trade volumes.

USDA projects that North Africa’s total wheat consumption will hit 46.55 million tons in 2025/26. At the country level, Egypt’s wheat imports are expected to reach 13 million tons, reaffirming its position as the world’s largest wheat importer. Algeria is forecast to import 9 million tons, while Morocco’s wheat imports are projected at 6.7 million tons for the same marketing year.

RUSSIA DEEPENS DOMINANCE

The real story, however, lies in who is supplying North Africa. Russia has emerged as the dominant wheat supplier to the region, securing nearly 50% market share, and an astounding 70% share in Egypt. Russian shipments to Libya were nearly exclusive, while exports to Tunisia rose by 50%, and those to Morocco more than doubled year-over-year, displacing traditional suppliers like France. The Kremlin’s focus on maintaining strong logistical links to Mediterranean ports and offering competitive pricing has helped consolidate its influence across North African wheat markets.

Ukraine, whose exports had plummeted following the outbreak of war in 2022, has staged a notable comeback in North Africa. In 2024/25, Ukrainian wheat exports to the region surged, supported by logistical proximity and aggressive pricing. Algeria became Ukraine’s third-largest wheat market, with volumes nearly tripling compared to the previous year. Similarly, shipments to Tunisia climbed by more than 50%, while EU exports to the country saw a sharp decline. For Ukraine, North Africa has become a vital alternative outlet as EU import restrictions intensify.

EU'S WANING INFLUENCE

The EU’s market share in North Africa slipped to just above 25%, with France losing ground in key markets such as Algeria and Morocco. Notably, Algeria has excluded France from its official tenders since July 2024, resulting in zero shipments from France over the past year. The contraction in French exports—due both to internal production challenges and diplomatic tensions—has created a vacuum quickly filled by Black Sea suppliers.

Looking ahead, USDA forecasts suggest that both Russia and the EU will expand their wheat exports in 2025/26, with the EU expecting a significantly larger harvest—particularly in France. However, new EU trade restrictions on Ukrainian wheat will push Ukraine to seek more aggressive access to third-country markets, including North Africa. With regional import demand projected to rise modestly and consumption nearing 47 million tons, competition for market share will likely intensify among Black Sea suppliers and recovering EU exporters.