Alexander Karavaytsev
Senior Economist
International Grains Council

Another record harvest is expected for the global grains market in 2025/26, however, sentiment is far from uniformly bearish. Although overall supply and demand balances point to comfortable availabilities, each grain is showing its own dynamics. Wheat prices are fluctuating near five-year lows amid large crops, mounting export competition and muted early-season buying. By contrast, the maize market has found support from solid international demand, while barley prices remain unseasonably strong as farmers, particularly in the Black Sea region, hold back sales.

PRODUCTION: GAINS ACROSS THE BOARD

Global grains production in 2025/26 is set to hit a third successive record, pegged at 2.4bn tonnes (+4% y/y), with increases for all crops, barring rye. The tally includes all-time highs for wheat and maize, projected at 819m (+2%) and 1.3bn tonnes (+5%), respectively.

Much of the increase for wheat is tied to a rebound in output across the eight main exporters, led by the EU, while dryness appears to have constricted productivity in Near East Asia. The increase in maize production is shaped by the US, where gains in both acreage and yields are likely to propel output to a record level. Argentina, China and Ukraine are also set to post sizable gains, more than offsetting retreats in the EU and Brazil, though outlooks for South America remain more tentative. Barley output is also set to edge higher after two years of decline, to 148m tonnes (+3%), on stronger crops in Australia, the EU and Russia. 

CONSUMPTION: SOLID DEMAND, BUT MIXED TRENDS

Total grains use is seen climbing to another record at 2.4bn tonnes (+2%), driven by expanding demand for food and feed. Wheat consumption growth continues to hinge on rising food demand, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa and parts of Asia. Advances in wheat feeding, however, may be capped by ample supplies of soymeal and maize. For maize, continued growth is expected in feed and industrial uses, alongside a modest rebound in food consumption, notably in Africa. In contrast, barley uptake could slide to a seven-year low, pressured by stiff competition from substitutes and subdued demand for malting barley.

END-SEASON STOCKS: A GENERALLY COMFORTABLE OUTLOOK

Although pegged at a peak, demand in 2025/26 is forecast to fall short of output for the first time in four years. Consequently, global end-season stocks should recover modestly from the previous year’s ten-year low, up 3% y/y to 606m tonnes, still below the five-year average.

Maize and barley stocks are set to expand, largely among key exporters, bringing volumes closer to average levels. The outlook for wheat is somewhat tighter, as the accumulation in the major exporters is likely to be countered by drawdowns in parts of Asia, with world carryovers seen matching the previous year’s six-year low.

TRADE: RECOVERY, BUT WITH HEADWINDS

Some recovery in global grains trade is expected in 2025/26 amid abundant supplies and likely soft export prices. The global figure is pegged at 438m tonnes, up by 4% y/y, but still short of the 2023/24 peak.

Wheat shipments are projected to rebound by 5% y/y to 207m tonnes, potentially the second largest on record. Comfortable local availabilities may curtail purchases by the EU, but expanding food demand could see deliveries to Asia and Africa expand, with import needs in parts of Asia underpinned by smaller crops. On the export side, after early-season delays, recovering Black Sea shipments have boosted international competition, with market pressure set to increase later in the season, as potentially bumper crops replenish availabilities in the main southern hemisphere producers. Russia is expected to remain the top supplier, but early setbacks and this season’s more costly logistics could limit full-year shipments. Much will also hinge on fluctuating export duties and export margins. While tighter supplies could also contain dispatches by Kazakhstan, Ukraine and Canada, other major exporters are well-placed to pick up slack, with solid rebounds in deliveries seen in Australia and the EU. 

Maize trade is projected up 3% y/y at 192m tonnes. Larger shipments are predicted to South America, Europe and Far East Asia, but deliveries to sub-Saharan Africa may shrink by half on improved local production. The current outlook also assumes a rebound in Chinese purchases, although the final volume rests on harvest results, relative prices and government efforts to balance the market. In terms of exports, the US should dominate with potentially record shipments. Brazil’s dispatches will likely expand but remain shy of earlier highs amid competition from the US and growing domestic demand for ethanol. Ukraine’s shipments are forecast to rebound on a larger crop, but Argentina could be held back by a smaller surplus.

In contrast to wheat and maize markets, barley trade is forecast to recede to 29m tonnes, a six-year low. China is expected to stay the top importer, accounting for more than one-third of global purchases, but with arrivals placed below the recent average. Shipments to Near East Asia are seen lower y/y and below historical peaks; larger import needs in Turkey amid production shortfalls contrast with smaller deliveries elsewhere, most notably to Saudi Arabia. On the export front, Australia is seen keeping the leading position, but dispatches may be the lowest in five years amid strong competition, including from the EU into the Chinese market. Export projections for Russia and Ukraine are up y/y, but remain tentative amid early-season harvest delays and elevated prices due to limited farmer engagement.

SOME FACTORS TO WATCH

While headline numbers point to adequate availabilities, several factors could prove decisive for trade flows and export prices. These include the much-anticipated US-China trade deal, often discussed in the context of soyabean trade, but with potential to shift sentiment in maize and wheat markets. Additionally, changing farmer selling patterns may continue to distort typical seasonal price dynamics, while currency gyrations could reshape competitiveness among exporters and impact importers’ buying power. Weather is still a swing factor, with southern hemisphere crops capable of shifting the global supply balance later in the season. And finally, geopolitics and logistics remain ever-present risks, from trade tensions and regional conflicts to weather-induced chokepoint disruptions.

*This article is published as part of Miller Magazine’s media partnership with Global Grain Geneva 2025, organized by Fastmarkets.

About the author

Alexander is a Senior Economist at the International Grains Council (IGC), an intergovernmental body that administers the Grains Trade Convention and promotes cooperation and transparency in global grain markets. While involved in most of the IGC’s work, his main focus is on global wheat and wheat product markets. He also leads the Council’s work on ocean freight for grains and oilseeds, as well as projects related to real-time shipping data.