Veysel Kaya
Analyst
SUNSEEDMAN

Global agricultural markets are currently facing a profound paradox. The 2025/26 season is defined by abundance, with record-breaking volumes across almost every major commodity. However, the physical movement of this supply is under severe pressure. As the Strait of Hormuz becomes a focal point for military escalation, the cost of transporting these record harvests is decoupling from fundamental supply-demand balances. With war-risk insurance premiums surging and the Middle East’s critical fertilizer exports at risk of a total blockade, the industry’s focus is rapidly shifting from today’s surplus to the potential supply shocks of the 2026/27 cycle.

Grains and oilseeds are strategic agricultural crops for human nutrition. In the current 2025/26 season, global grains output is around a record 2.5 billion tonnes, with corn leading at around a record 1.3 billion tonnes (almost half of total grains output). Wheat and rice output are also around record levels, at about 840 million tonnes and 545 million tonnes, respectively.

Global oilseeds output is also around a record 675 million tonnes, led by soybeans at around a record 430 million tonnes.

GLOBAL OUTPUT SNAPSHOT

SOURCE: IGC, SUNSEEDMAN, USDA.

KEY PRODUCERS, EXPORTERS AND IMPORTERS

Corn: The top-3 producer countries are China (300 Mt), Brazil (135 Mt) and EU-27 (58 Mt). Brazil is the leading exporter (41 Mt) and Mexico is the leading importer (26 Mt).

Wheat: The top-3 producer countries are EU-27 (145 Mt), China (140 Mt) and India (118 Mt). Russia is the leading exporter (45 Mt) and Egypt is the leading importer (13 Mt).

Oilseeds: The top-3 producer countries are Brazil (190 Mt), USA (125 Mt) and China (70 Mt). Brazil is the leading exporter (115 Mt) and China is the leading importer (120 Mt).

Rice: The top-3 producer countries are India (153 Mt), China (146 Mt) and Bangladesh (38 Mt). India is the leading exporter (25 Mt) and the Philippines is the leading importer (5 Mt).

Barley: The top-3 producer countries are EU-27 (56 Mt), Russia (19.5 Mt) and Australia (15.5 Mt). Australia is the leading exporter (8 Mt) and China is the leading importer (10.5 Mt).

TÜRKİYE SNAPSHOT

Türkiye is the leading wheat flour exporter and the second-largest macaroni/pasta exporter. Wheat flour exports were as high as 3.65 Mt in calendar year 2023, but slowed to around 2.34 Mt in calendar year 2025 due to new milling investments in Iraq and temporary milling wheat import bans. Macaroni/pasta exports were around 1.42 Mt in calendar year 2025.

Turkish milling wheat imports mainly revolve around the Inward Processing Regime, i.e., importing wheat duty-free (normally 130%) and re-exporting as wheat flour, macaroni, etc.

In calendar year 2023, Turkish wheat imports were as high as 11.7 Mt, making Türkiye the world’s leading wheat importer. However, in line with lower wheat flour exports, imports fell to around 4.77 Mt in calendar year 2025 (and 4.36 Mt in 2024), with most of the volume coming from Russia (95%).

Türkiye is also the world’s leading sunflower seed importer, with imports projected to exceed 1.5 Mt in the 2025/26 season.

PRICE BENCHMARKS AND MARKET CONTEXT

For price monitoring and trading in global grains and oilseeds markets, the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) is a key reference. Based on BARCHART graphs, CBOT corn prices from 1973 to 2026 ranged between 100–800 cents/bushel (i.e., $1.00–$8.00/bushel; x 0.39368 = roughly $39–$315/mt) and recently around 400–500 cents/bushel (i.e., $4.00–$5.00/bushel; roughly $150–$200/mt). In cash markets, premiums apply depending on origin, lot size, quality, delivery mode, etc. (For example, Ukrainian-origin feed corn CIF Marmara around $245/mt; Turkish TMO booked 350 kmt at $242–$244/mt C&F via an international tender).

Based on BARCHART graphs, CBOT wheat prices from 1973 to 2026 ranged between 200–1,100 cents/bushel (i.e., $2.00–$11.00/bushel; x 0.367437 = roughly $73–$404/mt) and recently around 550–650 cents/bushel (i.e., $5.50–$6.50/bushel; roughly $200–$240/mt). In cash markets, premiums apply depending on origin, lot size, quality, delivery mode, etc. (For example, Russian-origin 12.5% protein milling wheat CIF Marmara around $245/mt).

Based on BARCHART graphs, CBOT soybean prices from 1973 to 2026 ranged between 400–1,800 cents/bushel (i.e., $4.00–$18.00/bushel; x 0.367437 = roughly $147–$661/mt) and recently around 1,000–1,200 cents/bushel (i.e., $10.00–$12.00/bushel; roughly $365–$440/mt). In cash markets, premiums apply depending on origin, lot size, quality, delivery mode, etc. (For example, Brazilian-origin soybeans CIF Marmara around $460/mt).

ENERGY AND LOGISTICS RISKS

The conflict involving Iran has moved into a higher-risk phase for energy markets and maritime logistics, with immediate spillovers into global trade costs. Following the escalation reported on 1–2 March 2026, crude benchmarks reacted sharply; Reuters reported oil prices jumping about 10%, with some analysts warning that prices could test $90–$100/bbl if disruption meaningfully constrains flows through key Gulf routes. At the same time, operational shipping behaviour has signalled heightened caution: Reuters cited ship-tracking data showing large numbers of vessels anchoring near Gulf ports as operators reassess risk, while reports of tanker damage and casualties have reinforced security concerns and raised expectations of higher war-risk premiums. Insurance has emerged as a critical “transmission mechanism”: Reuters reported that several major P&I clubs and insurers issued cancellation notices for war-risk cover in Iranian waters and adjacent areas, with changes taking effect from 5 March 2026—a move that can deter transits and tighten effective capacity even in the absence of a formal blockade. With the Red Sea already prone to periodic disruption and rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope, the additional Hormuz-related risk compounds logistics uncertainty across the Middle East–Eastern Mediterranean corridor, increasing freight, insurance and delay premiums that ultimately feed into higher landed costs for traded commodities, including grains and oilseeds.

Based on BARCHART graphs, Brent prices over the last 20 years ranged between $25–$150/barrel and recently around $60–$80/barrel.

BLACK SEA DEVELOPMENTS

After the general summary of global output, trade and market/price dynamics for grains and oilseeds, it is useful to focus on current Black Sea developments.

Corn: Ukrainian and Russian output are around 30 Mt and 15 Mt, respectively. While Ukraine exports around 23 Mt, Russia exports only 3 Mt. The Russia–Ukraine war (since 24 February 2022) has considerably jeopardised production, logistics and trade. In the 2025/26 season, Ukraine also faced wetter conditions during harvest, with some output and quality deterioration.

Wheat: Ukrainian and Russian output are around 90 Mt and 25 Mt, respectively. Russia is the leading exporter at around 45 Mt, while Ukrainian exports are around 15 Mt. Therefore, Russian export policy and logistics are particularly crucial for global wheat markets.

Recently, Russia has a zero export tax for wheat and released 20 Mt of grain export quotas (mostly wheat) for the period 15 February–30 June 2026.

The ongoing Russia–Ukraine war, financial bans/troubles/sanctions, and congestion at ports—especially the Kerch Strait—have raised questions about future Russian wheat exports and freight rates.

In addition, harsh weather conditions, a frozen Azov Sea and rivers, and possible rasputitsa risks (muddy conditions as snow melts) in the Black Sea basin could further obstruct logistics.

Both Russia and Ukraine are also global leaders in sunflower seed output and in sunflower oil and sunflower meal exports.

2026/27 SEASON PROSPECTS

It may be a little early to speak in detail, but in both the Black Sea and globally, less lucrative grain prices versus oilseeds could result in lower grain acreage and higher oilseeds acreage (sunflower in the Black Sea and soybeans in the USA, etc.). Nevertheless, weather conditions and the grains-to-oilseeds price ratio should be monitored closely.