Despite recent bumper crops in key origins, the global durum wheat sector remains fragile. At the World Durum and Pasta Forum 2025 in Rome, leading analysts and industry executives warned that weather shocks, shrinking premiums over soft wheat, rising logistics costs, and shifting consumption patterns are undermining stability.
During the World Durum and Pasta Forum 2025 in Rome, industry leaders and market experts painted a complex picture of the global durum wheat market. From production volatility in North America and North Africa to structural deficits in Europe and shifting trade dynamics in Turkey and Kazakhstan, the discussions underscored how weather, logistics, and policy are reshaping supply and demand for durum wheat, the essential grain behind pasta production
GLOBAL DURUM WHEAT MARKET
Dean Arsenie, Global Trade Manager at Bunge, provided a sweeping and data-rich view of the global durum wheat market, outlining both structural shifts and short-term disruptions that are shaping trade flows. North America, traditionally the world’s key supplier, is currently facing uncertainty about quality. “We’ve only seen representative samples covering about 1.5 million tons in Canada and even less in the U.S. — it’s still too early to make strong conclusions on quality,” he cautioned. Nevertheless, Canada’s large crop is expected to boost export competitiveness in most markets this season. While prices may be low, Arsenie stressed that they must still cover production costs, as “farmers are unlikely to sell below these levels.”
Dean Arsenie
Mexico, once an exporter, has become a net importer after a catastrophic drought slashed production to under 0.5 million tons. Imports of at least 350,000 tons are expected this season, mainly from Canada and the U.S. Increased U.S. production is also helping to meet this demand.
In Turkey, updated figures indicate lower production than initially reported. This has already led to some imports from Russia, and depending on the strength of the local market, there may be additional demand for high-quality Canada Western Amber Durum (CWAD).
In Europe, expanding acreage in Eastern countries — such as Slovakia, Hungary, Romania, Bulgaria, and Austria — has made the region increasingly relevant. However, the higher production volume has come with a caveat: lower protein quality. In particular, weak protein levels in France and Spain may prompt millers to seek high-protein alternatives from Canada or Australia. Arsenie noted that Canadian high-protein durum may be in firm demand throughout the year.
On the demand side, North Africa’s imports are expected to decline due to a strong local crop, while vegetation health data also points to significantly reduced demand from both North Africa and Italy. Nevertheless, Arsenie pointed out that narrowing price spreads between durum and other commodities could encourage demand later in the season.
Globally, high prices in recent years have incentivized new producers to enter the market — from Russia and Kazakhstan to Turkey — yet Arsenie warned that the global durum landscape remains fragile. “Farmers everywhere are complaining about low prices, from Italy to Canada and Australia. The key question is whether countries will seize this moment to build strategic stocks while prices are at historic lows,” he noted.
Despite the current low-price environment, Arsenie observed that the market continues to operate on a hand-to-mouth basis. This raises questions about whether governments or commercial buyers will move to build strategic reserves or take advantage of favorable prices to lock in supply security.
NORTH AMERICA: STEADY SUPPLY, WEATHER RISKS
Matthew Wilson, Commodity Trader at Paterson GlobalFoods, highlighted steady growth in U.S. durum acreage, projected at 2.2 million acres in 2025, a 5% year-on-year increase. According to USDA data, U.S. durum wheat production is forecast to rise to 2.36 million tons in 2025, up from 2.17 million tons in 2024 and 1.61 million tons in 2023 — marking a significant rebound from the 2021 low of just 1.02 million tons.
Matthew Wilson
For the 2025/26 marketing year, U.S. domestic use is projected at 2.5 million tons, with exports reaching 700,000 tons. Total supply is expected to be around 4.17 million tons, and ending stocks could rise to 1 million tons, pushing the stocks-to-use ratio up to 32%, according to U.S. Wheat Associates.
Yet one of the most critical market disruptions remains the U.S.–Canada durum trade, heavily impacted by tariffs. On November 25, 2024, President Trump announced 25% tariffs on Canadian and Mexican imports, including durum wheat under the USMCA. These tariffs, which took effect on February 1, 2025, triggered a pre-tariff import surge as buyers rushed to fill silos before duties were imposed. In February 2025, U.S. imports of Canadian durum peaked at 106,300 tons, compared to the typical monthly average of 40–50,000 tons.
Looking further south, Wilson noted a severe contraction in Mexico’s durum production. For 2025/26, output is projected to fall to just 400,000 tons, down from 1.87 million in 2023/24 and 1.41 million in 2024/25 — the lowest in decades, driven by prolonged drought in Sonora, where over 80% of Mexico’s durum is grown. The country has harvested only 150,000 acres, the smallest area in 30 years, officially becoming a net importer of durum wheat. As of September 11, 2025, Mexico had already booked 50,000 tons from the U.S., with potential imports ranging between 200,000–300,000 tons from the U.S. and 50,000–100,000 tons from Canada, depending on pricing.
Meanwhile, Canada is expecting a 2025 crop of 6.8 million tons, up from 6.38 million in 2024 and 4.29 million in 2023. With exports projected at 5 million tons, Wilson emphasized that demand from Italy, Algeria, and Turkey will play a decisive role in shaping price direction. Canadian ending stocks are forecast to rise to 1.62 million tons, pushing the stocks-to-use ratio to 28.3% — up sharply from just 8.4% the previous year.
Finally, Wilson flagged that Russia and Kazakhstan are seeing improved production and quality, posing increased competition in North African markets. Canadian producers are already reacting to these dynamics, with forward sales increasing amid strengthening prices. Whether rebounding yields in 2025 will shift planting decisions for 2026 remains to be seen — but as Wilson warned, the global durum landscape remains in flux.
EUROPE: STRUCTURAL DEFICIT PERSISTS
Jaume Mas, President of Semolieri Europei (European Semolina Millers) and executive at Pastas Gallo, reported that EU durum production is projected at 8.3–8.9 million tons in 2025, up around 15% from last year, with Italy alone contributing more than 4 million tons, followed by France (1.25 million), Greece (0.8 million), and Spain (0.8 million). Despite this rebound — the highest output since 2018/19 — it remains insufficient for Europe’s needs. “The structural deficit is unchanged. Imports from non-EU countries remain indispensable,” he emphasized.
Jaume Mas
According to Mas, EU beginning stocks stand at 8.3 million tons, with usable production of just 8.25 million and average yields at 4 t/ha. Imports from third countries are expected to exceed 2.0 million tons.
Italy accounts for more than 80% of EU imports — over 210,000 tons so far in 2025/26 — with Spain, Belgium, Greece, and smaller member states following. On the supplier side, Canada remains Europe’s primary partner, though its share has shifted: Canada is forecast to supply 34% of imports (87,560 tons), while Kazakhstan (23%), Turkey (20%), the U.S. (14%), and Australia (5%) have strengthened their positions. Turkey’s role, in particular, has seen a sharp correction — falling from 51% of EU imports in 2024/25 to below 20% in 2025/26.
Mas underlined that the EU’s net importer position is structural: “The 2025/26 crop is remarkable, but it will not compensate the deficit.” Demand continues to drive flows, with Italy’s pasta industry leading purchases and Spain’s millers focusing on high-quality grades. He warned, however, that European farmers face mounting profitability challenges. “The structural deficit guarantees trade flows, but low farmgate prices and inflationary pressures are squeezing growers. This could become a game-changer for plantings in 2026/27,” Mas concluded, noting that stock management and carryovers will be crucial for market stability in the years ahead.
NORTH AFRICA: PRICE-SENSITIVE DEMAND
Gerald Theis, CEO of Gromic, highlighted Morocco as an emblem of climate stress. Six of the past ten harvests have been hit by drought, causing output to swing between 2 and 5 million tons. Imports — almost entirely from Canada — are crucial, averaging 700,000 tons annually but potentially rising to 1.1–1.2 million tons in 2025/26 thanks to lower global prices. Projections point to 1 million tons coming directly from Canada, with a median campaign price of around $300/ton CnF Morocco.
Gerald Theis
Consumption patterns are evolving. Younger consumers are shifting from homemade couscous to industrial pasta, reinforcing demand for high-quality yellow semolina. Currently, about 60% of imports go to industrial pasta and couscous production, while 40% is milled into flour. Traditional uses of local durum wheat remain significant, particularly in artisanal milling into wholemeal flour for authentic bread-making and budget-conscious households, as well as in artisanal bakeries blending durum and soft wheat flours. Cracked durum also continues to feature in traditional soups.
Processing trends further illustrate Morocco’s dependence on global markets. Industrial semolina processing dipped to 736,000 tons in 2021 amid price shocks, but volumes have since rebounded, reaching 910,000 tons in 2024. Theis noted that high international prices, ranging from $500–600/ton CnF during the Ukraine war and Canada’s short crop, had suppressed demand. “The market is extremely price-sensitive. When prices soared above $800/ton in 2021–22, consumption dropped sharply. But with prices easing back to the $275–300/ton range, demand will rebound strongly,” he predicted.
Morocco’s cereal consumption underscores this vulnerability: nearly 9 million tons are used annually for human consumption, equating to 200 kg per person — roughly double the per-capita cereal use in France or Italy. Despite its modern consumer habits aligned with European standards, Morocco’s structural reliance on imports remains unshaken, with climate volatility and farm-level production shortfalls making foreign supply indispensable.
TURKEY’S DURUM WHEAT AND PASTA MARKET
Saban Buttanrı, CEO of Agrolino, described Turkey’s dual role as both exporter and importer. For the 2025/26 season, durum production is estimated at 3.8 million tons, with an average yield of 2.81 tons per hectare across 1.35 million hectares. Including carry-in stocks of 1.3 million tons, total supplies reach 5.1 million tons. Yet yields remain uneven, with smallholder farmers struggling to achieve higher productivity levels despite the advantages of irrigated regions and skilled producers.
Saban Buttanrı
Looking at longer-term trends, Turkey’s durum production has fluctuated between 3.2 and 4.4 million tons over the past decade, with yields swinging from just 2.6 tons/ha in 2019 to over 3.4 tons/ha in 2023/24. Buttanrı underlined that this volatility continues to pose risks for both domestic supply and export consistency.
On the demand side, Turkey’s durum consumption is projected at 4.07 million tons in 2025/26, led by bulgur production (1.25 million tons, 31%), domestic pasta manufacturing (1.0 million tons, 25%), mixed pasta (600,000 tons, 15%) and pasta for export (500,000 tons, 12%). Additional allocations include 350,000 tons for seed, 250,000 tons for baklava flour/semolina, 120,000 tons for semolina exports, and a small import requirement of 300,000 tons. Forecast carry-over into 2026 is expected at just over 1.0 million tons, ensuring some buffer for the following season.
The Turkish Grain Board (TMO) remains a central actor, purchasing wheat at $335/ton and holding an estimated 2.5 million tons in inventory, a level of intervention that strongly shapes market dynamics. Turkey is expected to export around 200,000 tons of durum wheat this year, while also importing roughly the same volume to balance domestic needs and quality requirements.
Pasta exports remain a national success story, averaging 1.4 million tons annually. Export prices have ranged from $519/ton in 2020 to $721/ton in 2022, easing to $631/ton in the first half of 2025. For 100% durum pasta, exports dropped from 907,000 tons in 2020 to 364,000 tons in 2024, with volumes in early 2025 at just 158,000 tons, though unit values remain firm at $806/ton.
“Turkey can produce excellent pasta from its durum wheat, as shown by our success in Japan, where we sell around 60,000 tons annually,” Buttanrı noted. “But in Africa and Latin America, price competition forces different strategies.”
Turkey’s pasta sector continues to expand domestically and abroad, with new plants under construction. “We will see more investment in pasta processing capacity, which will increase competition for quality durum,” Buttanrı predicted.
He also stressed that Turkey has the seed technology, processing capacity, and quality potential to remain a key global player, but pointed to five major challenges:
- Rising processing capacity, which may limit durum available for export.
- Price parity risks, as close alignment of soft and durum wheat prices could push Turkish farmers toward milling wheat.
- Seed quality gaps, particularly among smallholders.
- Yield volatility, which undermines the target of reaching 6 million tons annually.
- Policy and incentives, which he argued are critical, as Turkey’s climate remains ideally suited for durum cultivation.
“The potential is there for Turkey to reach 5.5–6.0 million tons of durum wheat production annually,” Buttanrı concluded. “But it will require better seeds, more incentives, and a balanced role for TMO to create a sustainable and competitive system.”
KAZAKHSTAN: GROWING OUTPUT, LOGISTICAL LIMITS
Tair Batalov, an experienced grain market specialist at Trade Agra, outlined the challenges and opportunities for Kazakhstan’s durum sector. Harvested area in 2025/26 is projected at 420,000 hectares, down from 460,000 last season. Yields are expected at 1.5 tons/ha, slightly below the 2024/25 level of 1.7 tons/ha, with total output near 630,000 tons.
Tair Batalov
Crop quality remains mixed: about 25% is classified high quality (Class 3), half is medium (Class 4), and another 25% falls into low-quality categories (Class 5). Weather volatility continues to drive uncertainty, while widespread pesticide use has helped protect around 70% of the crop from disease and pests.
Batalov underlined that Kazakhstan’s durum wheat exports, expected at around 300,000 tons this season, are modest by international standards but play an important role in supplying nearby markets such as Uzbekistan, Afghanistan, and Central Asia, with occasional flows into Europe and North Africa.
He also highlighted structural constraints. Rising railway tariffs — now above $80/ton for loaded wagons — are eroding competitiveness and will likely require continued state subsidies. Russian transit restrictions remain a major bottleneck, forcing Kazakh exporters to rely on Georgian, Baltic, and Russian Black Sea ports.
Competition in global markets is intense, with durum’s premium over soft wheat nearly disappearing. “Without targeted incentives, we risk a downward trend in both area and production,” Batalov warned. He also noted that China has become an increasingly important outlet, absorbing significant volumes of medium- and low-quality durum as feed powder.