At EuroGrainExchange 2026 in Bucharest, grain and oilseed market leaders warned that Black Sea and Danube trade is entering a more complex phase, as comfortable global supplies are increasingly offset by low margins, weather and climate risks, shifting crop rotations, biofuel-driven oilseed demand, freight volatility and tighter financing conditions. Miller Magazine, a media partner of the event, followed the discussions on site.

EuroGrainExchange 2026 brought together grain traders, analysts, farmers, logistics providers, processors and supply chain companies in Bucharest on April 23–24, placing the Black Sea, Danube, Balkans and Central and Eastern Europe at the centre of discussions on the next phase of global grain and oilseed trade. The event featured panels on global macroeconomics, grain and oilseed outlooks, supply chain economics and regional market developments. 

The mood in Bucharest was realistic rather than pessimistic. Speakers repeatedly underlined that the region has built major export capacity over the past three decades, but warned that the next stage of growth will be shaped less by volume alone and more by trust, execution, risk management and adaptability.

Opening remarks at the conference placed strong emphasis on the strategic role of the Black Sea and South-East European grain trade at a time of war, freight uncertainty, defaults, tighter margins and repeated supply chain disruptions. Speakers said the region’s grain business has moved far beyond its early post-transition phase and has become a critical part of global food supply. But this progress comes with new pressures. Speakers warned that defaults, bankruptcies, compressed trading margins and financing problems are becoming more visible across parts of Eastern Europe. 

GLOBAL SUPPLIES COMFORTABLE, BUT RISKS ARE BUILDING

In the first market outlook panel, Peter Clubb, Market Analyst at the International Grains Council, said global grain markets are entering the new season with comfortable supplies after a record 2025/26 harvest. Aggregate global production of wheat, maize, rice and other grains was estimated at just under 3 billion tonnes, while demand also reached a new high. 

However, Clubb warned that the outlook for 2026/27 is becoming more complicated. The IGC expects world wheat production to fall by 3% year on year to 821 million tonnes, while maize output is projected to ease to 1.303 billion tonnes. Low grain prices are reducing planting incentives, while higher fertilizer and diesel costs could pressure margins and application rates. Clubb also pointed to El Niño risk in the second half of 2026 and tensions around the Persian Gulf as key uncertainties for weather, freight and energy costs. 

His message was that current supply comfort should not lead to complacency. Stocks have recovered, but stock-to-use ratios remain below historical highs, and the market is exposed to a combination of weather, input-cost and geopolitical risks.

Dragos Costin Telehuz, co-owner of Telehuz Agriserv

BIOFUELS RESHAPE VEGETABLE OIL DEMAND

Artem Hammerschmidt, Head of Vegoils and Biofuels Research at Ceras Analytics, argued that biofuel demand is becoming one of the strongest drivers of global vegetable oil balances. Higher fossil fuel prices have improved the competitiveness of biofuels, strengthening demand for biomass-based diesel and vegetable oils as feedstocks. He said current policy implies around 8 million tonnes more FAME, HVO and SAF requirements in 2026 and a further 7 million tonnes in 2027. U.S. mandates are expected to support soybean oil demand, while Indonesia’s B50 rollout is set to increase palm oil use for biodiesel. Hammerschmidt warned that even as oilseed and vegetable oil production rises, stronger domestic use in key producing countries will limit export availability. Ceras Analytics expects vegetable oil exports to decline for the first time since 2023/24 and stocks to fall to a six-year low.

BLACK SEA PRICES RESIST SUPPLY PRESSURE

Masha Belikova, Analyst at Fastmarkets, said Black Sea wheat and corn markets are showing unusual firmness despite strong supply prospects. Ukraine’s 2026/27 wheat crop is estimated at around 22.3–23.5 million tonnes, while Russia’s crop is seen at 89–91 million tonnes, excluding occupied Ukrainian territories. Belikova said farmer selling resistance, higher production-cost expectations, currency movements and uneven demand from key buyers are preventing new-crop prices from coming under the pressure normally expected in a well-supplied market. 

Anda Zabava, Trader at Cargill Agricultura, Romania

AI MOVES FORECASTING CLOSER TO REAL TIME

Carolina Ferreira, founder of Octopusbot, presented artificial intelligence and big data as tools that can help the grain sector detect crop risks earlier. She said traditional official estimates remain important, but they often lag when conditions change rapidly and may not capture regional differences. 

Ferreira explained that AI-based models can combine regional weather data, precipitation, soil moisture, temperatures, satellite imagery, historical yields, planted area, production data, global supply and demand estimates, futures and cash prices, and disruptive events. Using China and Ukraine corn as examples, she said AI models were able to detect production risks before they were fully reflected in market expectations. 

THE NEXT 25 YEARS MAY NOT REPEAT THE LAST 25

Global grain and oilseed market consultant Cesar Soares said the sector should prepare for a structural break with the growth model of the past quarter-century. Between 2000 and 2025, the world added around 2.3 billion people, while global grain and oilseed production rose by roughly 1 billion tonnes. Demand grew almost in parallel, keeping the system in balance. Looking toward 2050, Soares argued that slower population growth, changing diets, Africa’s demographic weight, China’s push for self-sufficiency, biofuels, electric vehicles and technology could reshape trade. He warned that global grain and oilseed trade may grow far more slowly than in the past 25 years, or even flatten, if China reduces import dependence and Africa’s demand is increasingly met through domestic production and regional processing. 

SUPPLY CHAIN ECONOMICS BECOME HARDER TO MANAGE

One of the most practical discussions of the conference came in the panel titled “Supply chain economics. Major challenges. Are we ‘lost in translation’?”, moderated by Miller Magazine Editor-in-Chief Namık Kemal Parlak. The session examined how different actors in the value chain interpret the same market stress in different ways.

Namık Kemal Parlak, Miller Magazine Editor-in-Chief 

Dragos Costin Telehuz, co-owner of Telehuz Agriserv in Romania, said farmers face low food prices and rising costs for labour, interest rates and land rents. He warned that when freight, port or inland logistics costs rise, pressure often moves back to the farmgate price. After repeated droughts and weak margins, many Romanian farmers now need an excellent year, not merely a good one, to repair their balance sheets. 

Iani Chihaia, President of the Romanian Feed Manufacturers Association, said the feed sector remains a key source of grain demand growth in the region. Romania’s industrial feed production has recovered to nearly 4 million tonnes from around 1 million tonnes in the mid-1990s, while the wider region still has room to expand animal production, particularly in poultry and swine. 

John Daskalakis, grain trader at Soya Hellas, stressed that logistics now sit at the centre of grain trade. In the Aegean and Black Sea region, coaster vessels, port limits, agents, surveyors and delivery windows can determine whether a trade works. He described the coaster fleet as the “workhorse of food security” in the region, underlining that small ships can move big markets. 

Ibrahim Demirayak, Grains and Oilseeds Manager at Ameropa Türkiye, said Türkiye is unlikely to be active in wheat imports in the new season if production reaches around 23 million tonnes and carry-in stocks remain sufficient. Barley imports are also expected to be limited, while corn remains Türkiye’s main import requirement, with imports potentially around 3.5 million tonnes, mostly from the Black Sea. 

Sébastien Henry, Managing Director of Agria Suisse Commodities, said international trading is moving away from the “casino player” model of directional speculation and toward disciplined risk management. In a low-price, oversupplied and margin-compressed environment, he said traders need optionality across origins, destinations, qualities, freight structures and execution routes. 

Victor Rombaut, CEO of Agro Tsar Petrovo, warned that EU farmers face not only climate stress but also a growing legislative burden. He criticised the impact of CBAM on fertilizer costs and questioned whether European farmers are being asked to compete under stricter rules while processors can import cheaper raw materials from origins with lower input costs. 

ROMANIA SHIFTS AWAY FROM CORN

Anda Zabava, Trader at Cargill Agricultura, Romania, said Romanian farmers are clearly shifting from spring crops toward winter crops, as high temperatures, limited precipitation and weaker corn profitability continue to reshape planting decisions. Winter crops are expected to account for 60% of Romania’s crop mix in 2026, up from 46% in 2025, while spring crops are set to fall to 40%. Corn has seen the largest decline in area, with acreage expected to remain low at a maximum of around 1.75 million hectares.

Irrigation remains a central constraint. Although 1.4 million hectares are theoretically prepared for irrigation in Romania, only 0.8 million hectares are actually irrigated. Zabava said weaker profitability, especially in corn, is reinforcing farmers’ shift toward wheat and rapeseed.

BULGARIA’S WHEAT STRENGTH CONTRASTS WITH CORN WEAKNESS

Todor Stoykov, Chairman of the Management Board of the Bulgarian Association of Grain and Feed Traders, said Bulgaria’s grain sector is increasingly divided between strong autumn crops and struggling spring crops. Bulgaria harvested a record wheat crop of 7.318 million tonnes in 2025/26, while North Africa now accounts for around 60% of Bulgarian wheat exports. 

The quality profile has also improved, with milling wheat rising from 42% of exports in 2021/22 to 85–90% in the last two seasons. By contrast, Bulgaria’s corn crop fell below 1 million tonnes in 2025/26, the weakest level in recent history, as both area and yields declined. Stoykov said Bulgaria is expected to be a net corn importer this season, while repeated poor spring crop performance raises questions about the viability of corn without irrigation investment. 

POLAND BECOMES A MULTI-DIRECTIONAL FLOW HUB

Marcin Chim of SIGRUM/BST Brokers argued that Poland is evolving from a transit bridge between East and West into a regional pricing hub. Poland combines strong domestic feed demand, a structural protein deficit, proximity to Ukraine and flexible export channels, making it a key balancing point in Central and Eastern Europe. 

Chim said Polish wheat stocks appear less burdensome than feared, while stronger exports, active feed demand and rising weather risks suggest a more balanced market. He also stressed that infrastructure is not the main bottleneck: Poland’s port capacity has expanded sharply, but up to half of grain exports still move by land, with Germany remaining the most stable wheat outlet and African markets absorbing much of the extra-EU volume. 

A REGION WITH CAPACITY, BUT ALSO NEW CONSTRAINTS

The discussions in Bucharest underlined the continuing importance of the Black Sea, Danube, Balkans and Central and Eastern Europe in global grain and oilseed trade. The region remains a major supplier, supported by production scale, export infrastructure, flexible logistics and proximity to key importing markets. But the conference also made clear that capacity alone is no longer enough.

Farmers are facing low margins, rising costs and climate stress. Traders are dealing with tighter finance, execution risk and counterparty concerns. Logistics companies are navigating more complex routes and freight volatility. Millers, feed producers and processors must secure raw materials in markets increasingly shaped by weather, energy, biofuels, regulation and geopolitics.