Vivian Iroanya
Senior Price Reporter
Agriculture and Food S&P Global Energy

Black Sea wheat values have entered 2026 on low footing, with ample global supply and fierce exporter competition keeping rallies short lived and the market trapped in a narrow range. Platts’ Milling Wheat Marker has moved within a roughly $6/mt band since September, as currency swings and tight margins collide with persistent freight and execution risk. Cold weather worries may lift prices briefly, but bottlenecks and oversupply continue to cap upside unless weather shocks or a sharp shift in execution conditions breaks the prevailing range.

Global wheat prices entered 2026 weighed down by oversupply, with intense competition among exporters keeping rallies short-lived. Platts’ Milling Wheat Marker (MWM), a benchmark for Black Sea export wheat published by S&P Global Energy, showed prices have remained range-bound within $6/mt since September, reflecting a market that repeatedly tested minor monthly highs/lows but failed to sustain directional moves. This stability was driven by a mix of currency volatility and margin constraints (notably a stronger Russian ruble and euro), persistent logistics friction and adverse weather concerns, and reliable import demand from major buyers such as Egypt and Turkey, supported by tender activity in Saudi Arabia and Algeria, all occurring against the backdrop of ample global supply.

Platts assessed the MWM at $230.75/mt on Feb. 3, the highest level since November, as a result of cold and frosty weather concerns and ongoing logistics bottlenecks. Market participants continued to emphasize freight and execution risk. “Logistics is the talk of the market,” a Turkish broker said at the Global Grain and Pulses Forum in Dubai. 

The price of Russian wheat was assessed by Platts at a premium of $1.25/mt to the MWM at $232/mt on February 03. Ukrainian wheat was assessed at $228/mt, at a $2.75/mt discount to the MWM, extending its discount spread to the price of Russian 12.5% wheat to the highest since November by $4-5/mt. 

The coasters market (CIF Marmara) extended its spread to the MWM to $19.25/mt, the highest spread since Oct. with coasters shipments from Azov to Marmara are now taking two weeks to a month, compared to the usual 10 days.

Meanwhile, the CVB 12.5% market was assessed at $236/mt on Feb. 03, a $6.75/mt premium to the MWM, and the 11.5% CVB at a $2/mt discount to the 12.5%.

The only major Black Sea spike this season, which started in July, occurred in August when the MWM hit $242/mt, driven by harvest delays and slow exports; prices later retreated and did not recover, reinforcing the broader theme of plentiful supply and heavy competition. This pressure was not limited to the Black Sea: other origins, including Canada and Australia, started in 2026 at lower levels, helped by good production and broadly comfortable exportable supplies.

ARGENTINA GAINS IN SOUTH ASIA

In Canada, nearby demand has effectively shifted out to April–May, as Jan–Mar coverage is already largely booked. A recent China–Canada canola tariff reduction (to 15%) could support canola sales and reduce the need to push wheat volumes to defend margins, yet S&P Global CERA projects Canada’s wheat exports to remain firm at roughly 29 million mt, the fastest pace in about a decade. Canada is also expected to remain a key supplier of high-protein wheat to China, given China’s limited domestic capacity to produce that quality. In Australia, exports are expected to average about 2.5 million mt, even as wheat loadings have been slower because exporters have prioritized barley and canola where premiums are stronger.

Argentina remains one of the most price-competitive origins, with wheat indicated just below $205/mt FOB despite typically lower protein. Port arrivals surged: December arrivals were about 88% above the 5-year average, and January is projected 100% above average, supporting steady shipment programs to Bangladesh, Indonesia, and Vietnam. A Bangladesh buyer said recent CFR Bangladesh Argentina 11.5% wheat was at $268/mt, with freight at $49–50/mt, making Argentine supply attractive versus Russian 12.5% or Canadian 13.5% alternatives in that corridor at $275/mt and $295/mt, respectively. 

CORN OUTLOOK

The global corn market is broadly bearish into 2026 on expectations of record production and high exports, raising the question of whether U.S. corn will again dominate Europe or whether Black Sea corn can remain competitive. Early-year Black Sea trades to Spain and Italy suggest ongoing demand, but firming Black Sea prices, driven by Turkish buying and logistics constraints, could shift additional demand toward U.S. and South American corn in Europe and even Egypt. Feed substitution remains a swing factor: last year, wheat flowed into feed as wheat/corn prices inverted, and European feed mills can adjust formulas quickly. With corn values down and the spread tightening, the feed wheat–corn relationship will be a key determinant of incremental demand across multiple importing countries.

In Southeast Asia, feed demand has been supported by abundant supplies of lower-protein wheat from Argentina and Australia, with Thai and Philippine buyers reportedly covered through June, well beyond their typical 3-month window. Traders said CFR Argentine wheat into parts of the region was in the low-to-mid $240s, at parity or about $5/mt below corn, keeping wheat competitive for feed substitution. Regulations protecting domestic corn farming (notably in Thailand and the Philippines) also indirectly support wheat’s role in feed rations.

Trade flows show shifting shares. In several Southeast Asian destinations (Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand), Ukraine’s shipments are lower, reaching about 54% of the season-to-date total, according to S&P Global Energy CERA, while Ukraine’s share to the EU fell due to quotas/tariffs (about 25% vs 67% last year). Egypt increased its share of Ukraine’s wheat demand to about 26% vs 13.4% last year. In corn, Ukraine’s share fell sharply (roughly 10% in 2025 vs 34.27% in 2024), while Brazil rose to about 66% (vs 55% last year) and Argentina to 15.7% (from 9%), as Turkish demand helped lift Ukrainian prices and alternative origins stayed competitive.

Russian exports to Africa remained consistent, but a notable change was Iran’s sharp reduction in purchases: around 900,000 mt in November, about 200,000 mt in December, and so far absent thereafter at the time of writing, alongside a broader slowdown of Caspian port shipments (wheat, corn, barley). Meanwhile, exports to the Middle East rose to roughly 11.2 million mt, up from about 9 million mt last year, while flows to the Far East and Western Hemisphere (e.g., Vietnam, Indonesia, Brazil, Mexico) lagged. Seasonal buying ahead of Ramadan typically supports import demand and stock-building, benefiting nearby suppliers such as Russia and Ukraine. Separately, France regained prominence in Morocco on the back of a good crop, with Morocco importing about 2.7 million mt since January versus about 306,000 mt from Russia. Argentine wheat is also making its way. According to FNCL data, Argentina’s wheat imports to Morocco surged to 192,500 mt in January, up from 57,000 mt in Dec. Platts assessed FOB Rouen at Eur199.25/mt on Feb. 3.

KEY DRIVERS TO WATCH IN 2026

Key price drivers to watch into 2026: Oversupply and exporter competition keeping prices capped; Russia’s wheat export quota from Feb. 15 (estimated to be largely used around 16-18 million mt); logistics and loading performances as a persistent risk premium; Currencies and negative margins shaping farmer selling and exporter behaviour; and adverse weather and winter planting risk, which could be the main catalyst for any sustained rally. 

Overall, the market balance remains bearish, but execution constraints, currency shifts, and weather shocks are the variables most likely to break the prevailing range.