FAO released its latest Cereal Supply and Demand Brief, with preliminary forecast for worldwide cereal output in 2022. Global wheat production is seen on course to increase to 790 million tonnes, with anticipated high yields and extensive planting in North America and Asia, offsetting a likely slight decrease in the European Union and the adverse impact of drought conditions on crops in some of the North African countries.

Maize harvesting will begin soon in the Southern Hemisphere, with Brazil’s output foreseen reaching a record high and production in Argentina and South Africa above their average levels.

FAO has also updated its forecast for world cereal production in 2021, now pegged at 2 796 million tonnes, a 0.7 percent increase from the year before.

Global cereal utilization in 2021/2022 is now seen at 2 802 million tonnes, a 1.5 percent annual increase. Global cereal stocks ending in 2022 are forecast to grow slightly over the year to 836 million tonnes. On those estimates, the worldwide cereals stocks-to-use ratio would stand at 29.1 percent, “marking an eight-year low, but still indicating an overall comfortable supply level” according to FAO.

FAO also raised its forecast for world trade in cereals to 484 million tonnes, up 0.9 percent from the 2020/2021 level. This forecast does not assume potential impacts from the conflict in Ukraine. FAO is closely monitoring the developments and will assess those impacts in due course.

CEREAL PRODUCTION SHORTFALL IN VULNERABLE COUNTRIES

Cereal production in the world’s 47 Low-Income Food Deficit Countries (LIFDCs) is expected to decline by 5.2 percent in the 2021/2022 marketing season compared to 2020/2021, due to conflicts and extreme weather events, according to the latest Crop Prospects and Food Situation Report, also released by FAO’s Global Information and Early Warning System (GIEWS). That points to an eight percent increase in the aggregate import requirement by LIFDCs to 66.6 million tonnes.

The quarterly report includes updates on the situation in the 44 countries currently identified as in need of external assistance for food as well as more granular updates to regional cereal production trends around the world, while also noting the risks to production and exports as well as to livelihoods related to the escalation of the conflict in Ukraine.