World Rye and Oat Market

13 September 20179 min reading
Global production of rye and oat is highly limited compared to the cereals like wheat, rice, corn and barley. But, they have begun to reappear, especially due to the new eating habits. Annual rye production is 12-14 million tons in the world, and majority of this provided by EU and Russia. According to USDA data; 12,1 million tons in the 2015/16 season, world rye production estimated to reach 12,5 million tons in the 2016/17 season. Predicted number is 12,6 million tons for 2017/18 season. Oats production which was 22,3 million tons in the 2015/16 season is expected to reach 23,3 million tons in 2016/17.

urunRye and oat, compared to other cereal species have much more limited production areas worldwide and therefore have much lower production volumes. Rye, which is a family of wheatgrass, is very similar in appearance to barley. The grains are thinner than the wheat, the husks are narrower, and the awns are rather short. The composition of rye, which is mostly regarded as bread flour and animal feed, contains carbohydrate, protein, potassium and vitamin B. The bread made from rye is also light as wheat bread. The protein mixes (gluten) found in wheat and rye flour makes it soft and elastic by swelling. Therefore, it is recommended that wheat or rye flour should be added while making bread from other cereals.

 Oat is also another cereal grain; however its appearance is highly different than wheat, barley and rye. Oat which can be easily distinguished from the other cereal grains with its scattered spike -shaped bunches has higher production amount compared to rye. Oat which is used mostly for animal feed and contains many starch, protein, vitamin and minerals is not used for bread making due to its swelling problem. Oat flour is mostly used for foods like porridge and flatbread; it seeds are generally used in grain mixtures having high nutritional value and biscuit production.

 WORLD RYE PRODUCTION AND CONSUMPTION Most of the world production of rye which was 12-14 million tons per year in average is provided by EU countries and Russia. According United States Department of Agriculture, Foreign Agriculture Service (USDA FAS) data; 14,4 million tons in 2014/15 as the actual world rye production, decreased 12,1 million tons in 2015/16 with reduction of 2,3 million tons. Global rye production which is estimated to be 12,5 million tons in 2016/17 season is forecasted to be 12,6 million tons in 2017/18 season.

 According to the estimates of USDA for 2016/17, EU takes first place with 7,4 million tons in global rye production of 12,5 million tons. Russia with 2.5 million tons, Belarus with 800 thousand tons, Canada with 410 thousand tons, Ukraine with 390 thousand tons, Turkey with 350 thousand tons, and USA with 342 thousand tons follow EU countries respectively. According to USDA data, rye production of EU countries will be 7,7 million tons in 2017/18 season. The decline is expected in any leading rye producer countries except for Russia, Canada and USA.

 Majority of rye is consumed where it is produced. Therefore, consumption amount and the ranking of the countries are nearly the same with the production. According to USDA data, global consumption amount of rye which was around 14,3 million tons in 2014/15 season decreased 12.6 million tons in the 2015/16 season. Rye consumption is expected to remain same in 2016/17 season.

 The consumption ranking of the countries seems to be the same with the production ranking in 2016/17 season. According to USDA data, the rye consumption of EU countries was 8 million tons in 2015/16 season. This amount is estimated to decrease to 7,8 million tons in 2016/17 season. However, EU countries will continue to be the top in consumption ranking in both situations. The largest consumption amount on country basis belongs to Russia as in production. Russia which is assumed to have consumed 2.4 million tons of rye in 2016/17 season is followed by Belarus with 800 thousand tons, USA with 499 thousand tons and Ukraine with 380 thousand tons.

 WORLD RYE TRADE As it can be observed from production and consumption data majority of rye is consumed in the country it is produced or a very small amount is exported to neighboring countries. Therefore, the global rye trade is only around 345 thousand tons in the 2015/16 season. This amount is estimated to increase 335 thousand tons in 2016/17 season.

Approximately half of the global rye trade in 2015/16 season (160 thousand tons) was exported by EU countries. It is estimated that export amount of EU countries will decrease to 125 thousand tons in 2016/17 season. Therefore, EU decreased second in exports.

Canada taking the first place in the world rye export in 2016/17 season with 150 thousand tons export. Russia which ranked in the third place in 2015/16 season with 23 thousand tons export is continued to be the third with 25 thousand tons in 2016/17 season. It is estimated that Canada will be first with an export amount of 150 thousand tons in 2017/18 projection.

 As it is understood from the difference between production and consumption, the largest share of imports of rye is in the United States. Rye import amount carried out in the USA in 2015/16 season is 217 thousand tons. This is estimated to be around 200 thousand tons in 2016/17 season. In global rye imports in 2016/17 season, EU countries follow USA in import with 50 thousand tons, with 25 thousand tons Israel, 20 thousand tons with Japan and 10 thousand tons with Norway.

 WORLD OATS PRODUCTION AND CONSUMPTION An important part of production of oats that the annual average is around 22 million tons is offered by EU, Russia, Canada and Australia. According to USDA data; 22,3 million tons in 2015/16 realized as the actual world oat production increased approximately 1 million tons in 2016/17, up to 23,3 million tons. It is forecasted that production will decrease a little in 2017/18 season and drop 22.3 million tons again.

 Regarding the country ranking in terms of estimates for 2016/17 season, EU countries are in the first place with 8 million tons in global oats production as in rye production. EU countries are followed by Russia with 4.7 million tons, Canada with 3 million tons, Australia with 1.8 million tons and USA with 940 thousand tons, Brazil with 828 thousand tons, Argentina with 785 thousand tons. Expectations are the lowest for USA and Australia compared to 2015/16 season. Australia which produced 1,8 million tons of oats in 2016/17 season will produce 800 thousand tons in 2017/18, and USA which produced 940 thousand tons in 2016/17 season will decrease the production around 200 thousand tons in 2017/18.

 The consumption of oats is intense where it is produced and shows a similar table with production as in rye consumption. It is seen that oats consumption is around 22-23 million tons in the whole world. 2014/15 world consumption of around 22,2 million tons of oats realized 22,1 million tons in the 2015/16 season and has risen 23,3 million tons in the 2016/17 season. Global oats consumption is forecasted to be 23,2 million tons in 2017/18 season.

In 2016/17 season, the largest share in total world consumption of 23,3 million belongs to the EU countries with 8 million tons of consumption (as it is also the same in production). EU countries are expected to be followed with consumption of 4.6 million tons by Russia, with consumption of 2.5 million tons by USA, 1.6 million tons of consumption by Canada and with 1.3 million tons of consumption by Australia in 2016/17 season. Compared to 2016/17 season, the highest increase is expected to be in Australia with 300 thousand tons; and the lowest will be Argentina with 60 thousand tons.

 WORLD OATS TRADE Amount of rye in the world trade is very small as in oats production. Every year average 2-2,5 million tons of oats are exported and imported. In world oats trade, the largest export share belongs to Canada. Canada is the country almost realizing more than 70 percent of oats exports of the world. It is foreseen for Canada which exported 1.6 million tons of oats in 2015/16 season to perform same amount of oats export in 2016/17 season. Canadian oats exports are followed by Australia with 300 thousand tons and EU countries with 200 million tons in 2016/17 season.

 A similar table in the oats export table of the world is seen in the oats imports. Referring to the world oats imports, it is seen that almost all of the world’s imports are performed by the United States. 1.5 million tons of oats import of USA in the 2015/16 season is expected to perform the import of 1.5 million tons again in 2016/17 season. In world oats import USA is followed by China with 250 thousand tons, Mexico with 100 thousand tons, Japan and Swiss with 50 thousand tons.

 OATS AND RYE PRODUCTION IN TURKEY Rye and oats cultivation areas in Turkey; come after wheat, barley, maize and rice. Despite the contraction of cultivation areas the increase in productivity has been effective in increasing production. According to the data of Turkey Statistical Institute (TSI), rye production which was 220 thousand tons of in Turkey in 2001, reached to 270 thousand tons in 2005, 343 thousand tons in 2009, and 365 thousand tons in 2013. But, in 2014 the rye production remained 300 thousand level. The production is increased and reached 330 thousand tons in 2015. But, it is decreased 300 thousand tons again.

 Oats cultivation areas in Turkey are much lower when compared to rye. Between 1938 and 1960, there was a steady increase in oats cultivation areas and began narrowing in subsequent years. The production parallel to the cultivation area has increased in recent years and was followed by a steady decline for the next years. In 2000 production which was realized as 314 thousand tons fell to 189 thousand tons in 2007, and in 2012 reached to 210 thousand tons. In 2013, oats production is reached 235 thousand tons and is decreased 210 thousand tons in 2014 season. In 2015 season, production is increased parallel to cultivation area and yield and reached 250 thousand tons. But, oat production of Turkey decreased 225 thousand tons in 2016.

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