World Corn Market and Turkey

04 March 201416 min reading
As the most widely grown agricultural product in the world with its production amount over 850 million tons, corn has many different areas of use. However, almost 60 percent of its production is used in feed industry. This use in the feed industry that approaches 500 million tons is projected to increase to 600 million tons towards 2020 with the demand increase seen in Asia and Latin America besides the general trend. Corn that has a fairly important role in the market for agricultural products both with its production and trade is an important food source because of the valuable nutrients it includes. It is stated that, in the world, 11 percent of the daily calories consumed in human diet is provided from corn and this rate even increases up to 27 percent in the developed countries. While a great part of the corn consumed in the developed countries today is used as animal feed, most of this product is used in human nutrition in less developed and underdeveloped countries. Besides its usage as human food and animal feed; used as the raw material of many products in the industry, corn becomes a more strategic plant both in the world and in Turkey gradually. It is estimated that 60% of the corn produced worldwide is used for animal feed, 20% of for direct human nutrition, 10%of for processed food and 10% as the rest for other consumptions and seed. On the other hand, it can be used directly or with its derivatives on other branches of the manufacturing industry. Besides these usage varieties, the demand development emerged depending on the factors such as growing population, increased demand for processed products, wellness request, the increase of animal production and the development of processing industry caused world corn production to increase consistently. WORLD CORN PRODUCTION Ranking third after wheat and paddy rice in terms of production until today, corn is the mostly consumed grain in the recent years. According to the latest report of International Grain Council (IGC) dated as 27th February; the world corn production, which was 831 million tons in 2010/2011 season, reached to the level of 877 million tons in the season 2011/12 with an increase of 46 million tons. Estimating that the production decreased to 861 million tons with a decline of 16 million tons in 2012/13 season; IGC points an increase at a record level in its 2013/14 estimate. IGC projects that world corn production will reach 959 million tons with an increase of 98 million tons in 2013/14 season. The data of U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) Foreign Agricultural Service on world corn production supports IGC’s data. However; USDA’s 2013/14 increase projection is 4 million tons more than IGC’s projection. It is stated that high production expectation in U.S. as world’s largest corn producer is effective on in its increase projection. A great part of world corn need is met by the American continent. As world’s largest corn producer, U.S. by itself realized 31,7% (273,8 million tons) of world corn production as 861,6 million tons in 2012/13 season. This makes U.S. as the most powerful country in world corn markets. Again in the American continent; Brazil with 81 million tons, Argentina with 26,5 million tons and Mexico with 21,5 million tons of corn production are among the largest countries that direct the world corn markets. Countries like Brazil and Argentina in the southern hemisphere are in advantageous position due to the season differences. These countries can provide supply to the northern hemisphere that realizes the most of the consumption in the period when the production stops but the need continues. Among the other countries that produce highest amount of corn, China comes first with a production of 205,6 million tons in the season 2012/13. China is followed by European Union with 58,8 million tons, India with 22,2 million tons and Ukraine with 20,9 million tons. On country basis; USA and China, realizes 55% of the world corn production. It is projected that there will be a record increase especially in U.S. in 2013/14 season. According to this projection; U.S. corn production will reach to 353,7 million tons with 79,9 million tons of increase in 2013/14 season. Projecting the production increase in China as 12 million tons; USDA forecasts 11 million tons of decrease for Brazil, 6 million tons of increase for European Union, 2 million tons of decrease for Argentina, 1 million tons of increase for India and 10 million tons of increase for Ukraine. WORLD CORN CONSUMPTION AND CONSUMPTION AREAS When the data of IGC is analyzed for general consumption figures; it is seen that world corn consumption, which was 844 million tons in the season 2010/11, reached 876 million tons with a record increase of 32 million tons in the season 2011/12. Estimating that world corn consumption decreased to 865 million tons with a decline of 11 million tons in the season 2012/13, IGC makes a consumption estimation of 959 million tons for the season 2013/14. This estimate indicates a record increase of 67 million tons. USDA’s data on corn production is a little bit different than the data of IGC. According to USDA data; world corn consumption, which was 851 million tons in the season 2010/11, reached 882 million tons in the season 2011/12. This consumption amount is 6 million tons more than the data of IGC. Announcing the 2012/13 season consumption amount as 861 million tons, USDA data remained at 943 million tons for its projection of 2013/14 season. This projection points a record increase and 16 million tons more than the projection of IGC. Even though the area of use is really wide, approximately 60% of the world corn production is consumed by the feed industry. This use in the feed industry that approaches 500 million tons today is estimated to increase up to 600 million tons towards 2020 with the demand increase seen in Asia and Latin America besides the general trend. The increase in the demand for animal products especially in Asia and underdeveloped countries is predicted to affect the increase in corn demand for feed production. Corn consumption for industrial reasons including bioethanol that shines out among petroleum alternative products is gradually increasing. Especially among the developed countries, the countries, which want to increase the share of renewable energy in meeting energy needs, to support alternative fuels such as ethanol with practices as tax advantages is an indication that this increase will also continue in the future. In the use of corn for ethanol, USA and Brazil are at the top. According to Renewable Fuels Association, the ethanol demand in USA tripled in the last 5 years until 2010. And the production increased 8 times in the period of 2000-2010. This increase especially accelerated after 2005 and the ethanol production which was 3.9 billion gallons in 2006 became 13.6 billion gallons in 2010 and 118 million tons of corn is used for that much ethanol. After USA, Brazil is the second largest bioethanol producer. However Brazil uses sugarcane as the raw material in its production instead of corn. Ethanol impacts the corn market in two different aspects. The first one is the use of corn which is the raw material in ethanol production. And the second one is the production of raw materials for the feed industry with the byproducts of ethanol production. While the first impact ensures market enlargement in respect of corn, the second one causes market shrinkage even though it is not that significant. Corn is also the raw material in the HFCS (High Fructose Corn Syrup) and SBS (Starch-based Sugar) production. HFCS is used as a sweetener in the food industry and its name pops up frequently during the discussions regarding food safety and obesity especially in the recent years. Global HFCS production is 13.8 million tons (on dry substance basis) as of 2010 and 8.3 million tons of this is produced by USA. China is the 2nd largest producer after USA with 1.7 million tons and it increased its production 3.5 times compared to 2007. Japan is ranked the 3rd with its production of 900 thousand tons. All of these are indications that the need for corn will continue to increase also in the future. POSITIONS OF COUNTRIES IN THE WORLD CORN CONSUMPTION USA, which has the largest share in the world corn production, is also the largest consumer. According to the reports of USDA; the corn consumption of USA, which was 200 million tons in 2002/03 season, was 285 million tons in 2010/11 that was the highest level in the last 10 years. However the estimates regarding the season 2011/12 indicates a slight fall in the consumption amount. It is projected that the corn consumption of USA was realized as 263 million 2012/13 season. It is projected that U.S.’s corn consumption will increase in parallel with the increase in the production and reach to 297 million tons in 2013/14 season. As in production, China follows USA also in consumption as the second largest consumer. According to the data of USDA; China that consumed 188 million tons of corn in the season 2011/12 is estimated to consume 202 million tons in the season 2012/13 USDA projects that corn consumption in China will reach to 216 million tons with an increase of 14 million tons in 2013/14 season. In 2012/13 corn consumption; China is followed by EU countries with 69,3 million tons, Brazil with 52 million tons, Mexico with 27 million tons and India with 17,5 million tons. Consumption estimates for the season 2013/14 are 72,5 million tons for European Union countries, 55 million tons for Brazil, 31,5 million tons for Mexico and 19,1 million tons for India. When the figures are reviewed based on regions; the region with highest corn consumption amount is North America because of USA. In North America where corn consumption was 302 million tons in the season 2012/13, an increase of 40 million tons and thus a consumption amount of 341 million tons is expected for the season 2013/14. East Asian region including China follows North America with 231 million tons. It is estimated for the consumption amount of East Asia to reach 247 million tons with an increase of 16 million tons in the season 2013/14. South America is ranked third in the world corn consumption with 77,2 million tons. It is estimated for the consumption amount of South America to reach 77 million tons with an increase of 3 million tons in the season 2013/14. And European Union is among the largest consumers of corn. In EU where consumption was 69.3 million tons in the season 2012/13, the consumption is estimated to be 72,5 million tons in the season 2013/14. Another important region in global corn consumption appears as Sub-Saharan Africa with 58,5 million tons. The estimated consumption amount of the region for the season 2013/14 is again 59,4 million tons. WORLD CORN TRADE and COUNTRIES LEADING CORN TRADE World corn trade volume reached its highest value in the season 2007/08 with 197 million tons. In this marketing year, it is seen that the fluctuations of the countries' production levels due to drought and the increases in the alternative areas of use such as biofuels encouraged import. Moreover, the feed corn demand that increased in line with the increase in the animal product consumption supported this increase. The trade volume decreased in the season 2008/09 with the increase of production. Even though there were seasonal increases in the next two seasons, the trade volume was still low compared to the season 2007/08. According to IGC data; world corn production, which was 131 million tons in 2010/11 and 2011/12 seasons, declined to 127 million tons in 2012/13 season. The world corn trade projection for 2013/14 season points 27 million-ton (154 million tons) significant increase. USDA data is different than the data of IGC. Announcing the world corn trade as 91,6 million tons in 2010/11 season, USDA declared that the trade reached to 103,7 million tons in 2011/12 season and decreased to 100 million tons level in 2012/13 season. The projection of USDA for 2013/14 season is 112,4 million tons. This amount is 42 million tons more than the projection of IGC. U.S. is on the top in world corn trade just like in the production. Country’s corn export amount represents almost one third of the world corn trade although it seems very low compared to the total production amounts. However; it is hard to say the same for 2012/13 season. Exporting 35-40 million tons corn every year, U.S. realized the lowest corn export of the last 10 years with 18,2 million tons in 201/13 season. Ranking first in the export in the seasons before 2012/13 season, the country ranked 3rd after Argentina and Brazil in 2012/13 season with this increase. When the corn export of U.S. is reviewed by years; it is seen that corn export, which was 40,3 million tons in 2002/03 season, reached to the highest level on the last 10 years with 61,9 million tons in 2007/08 season. Having a fluctuating trend in the following seasons, U.S. corn export is projected to reach 41 million tons in 2013/14 season. Ranking third after U.S. and Argentina, Brazil was on top in world corn export in 2012/13 season with 26 million-ton export. At the same period; Argentina with 22,7 million tons and U.S. with 18,2 million tons followed Brazil. These 3 countries in the American continent realize 67 million tons of 100 million-ton export. Ukraine with 12,7 million tons, India with 4,7 million tons and Paraguay with 2,8 million tons follow these countries. In the projections for 2013/14 season; it is stated that U.S. will reach to 41 million-ton export with an increase of 23 million tons. U.S. will rank first again in the world corn export with this increase. On the contrary to the increase in U.S., corn export of Argentina and Brazil is projected to decrease. According to that; Brazil’s export will decrease 4 million tons and Argentina’s export will decrease 9 million tons in 2013/14 season. And the greatest share in the global corn import belongs to Japan with 14,3 percent. Japan that imported 14.4 million tons of the total global corn import which was 100 million tons in the season 2012/13 will continue to be at the top in the next season. USDA’s estimate regarding corn import of Japan in the season 2013/14 is 15,5 million tons. For corn production to be at an extremely low level like 1,000 tons, and feed and HFCS consumption to be at high levels in contrary of this make Japan foreign dependent for corn. In import, EU countries that are also some of the most important producers follow Japan. While EU countries imported 2,7 million tons of corn in the season 2009/10, they reached to 10.3 million tons in the season 2012/13. EU countries are estimated to realize 10,5 million-ton corn import in 2013/14 season. South Korea with 8 million tons, Mexico and Egypt with 5 million tons follow EU countries in world corn import. Being the second largest importer in the previous seasons after Japan, Mexico gave its place to South Korea in 2012/13 season. When the projections are reviewed, it is seen that this ranking will be the same in 2013/14 season. CORN PRODUCTION IN TURKEY In Turkey, corn is the grain that is grown the most after wheat and barley among other grains. Corn that has an important role both in human nutrition and animal nutrition is produced in almost every region of Turkey. According to the corn report of International Grains Council dated as 2012; the current production and yield values proves that corn will gain more importance. Significant increases have been experienced in corn cultivation fields and production due to the support of corn production in Turkey. Increasing the corn cultivation fields in Central Anatolia and Southeast Anatolia regions and people’s preference for choosing corn as the secondary product in coastal areas have an important role on that increase. 70% of the corn production in Turkey is realized as the primary product and 30% is realized as the secondary product. Practices encouraging corn production, the development of high-yielding varieties, efficient use of water and fertilizers, mechanization and being easily marketed are the factors in the increase of corn cultivation fields and production. Today, corn production is realized in 60 provinces of Turkey. Corn farming is realized mainly in Mediterranean, the Black Sea, the Marmara, Aegean and in the Southeastern Anatolia Regions. 68 of the corn cultivation consists of grain corn fields and 32% of silage corn fields. After corn production popularized especially in Cukurova region, a visible increase was seen in corn production of Turkey and the yield per decare exceeded 600 kg/da in the last decade. Even though average yield per decare in Turkey is below the global average today, there are farmers who reach levels of 1,500 kg/da in primary product and 1,200 kg/da in secondary product especially in Cukurova region. According to the agricultural data of Turkish Statistical Institute (TUIK); Turkey’s corn production displayed an almost 100 percent increase in the last 13 years. Turkey, which produced 2.2 million tons of corn in 2001, reached 4.3 million-ton production amount in 2010. The production reached 5,9 million tons in 2013. The most important reason behind this increase can be shown as the increase in the productivity. While Turkey produced 2.2 million tons on a land of 5.5 million decares in 2001, it produced 4.3 million tons on a land of 5.9 million decares in 2010. In 2013, 5,9 million-ton production was reached on 6,5-decare area. The yield per decare that was 401 kg reached to 894 kg in 2013. Thus, there is an improvement close to 100 percent in productivity as well as in production amount. TURKEY’S CORN IMPORT AND EXPORT In Turkey, the corn production couldn’t meet the consumption for years and the need was met through import. However the production amounts in 2005 and in years after 2008 experienced a rise in a level that met the country's need. Thus, Turkey's corn import has experienced a significant fall in the recent years. When the data of TUIK is reviewed; Turkey imported an average of 1 million 329 thousand tons of corn corn between the years of 2000 and 2004. In line with the increase in corn production, the corn import decreased in 2005 and 2006. And because the producers, who couldn’t generate sufficient income in the years 2006 and 2007, gave up producing corn and because of the decrease observed in productivity due to the drought, the production amount decreased again and this caused the import to increase back in 2007 and 2008. And the rapid increase in corn consumption was another factor causing corn import to rise back to the levels above 1 million tons. With the rise of the production amount in 2008 and 2009 in a way that met the need, the import amount dropped back in 2009 and export amount increased. Declining to 372 thousand tons in 2011, Turkey’s corn import increased again after these years and reached to 800 thousand tons in 2012 and 1,5 million tons in 2013.
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