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World Corn Market

01 February 20179 min reading

Corn has come second after wheat in terms of production in the world before. But, but it has been ranking first for the last 10 years. Global corn production which reached 1,01 billion tons in 2014/15 with record rising is expected to fall down to 959 million tons in 2015/16. But, the forecasted production amount of world corn is 1,03 billion tons.

MISIR

To understand the global importance of corn and its position among agricultural products, we have prepared an evaluation for you through a comparison of the data published by organizations which study the cycle of production, consumption and trade of grains around the world.

According to the report published by US Department of Agriculture (USDA) in November, global corn production reached 1,01 billion tons in 2014/15 and it is expected to fall down to 959 million tons in 2015/16. According to the estimates by USDA, global corn production will resume its rise in 2016/17, and reach 1,03 billion tons in October.

According to the report published by International Grain Council (ICG) on 24 November 2016, global corn production was 1,01 billion tons in 2014/15 and it is expected to be 977 million tons in 2015/16. According to the estimates of ICG, global corn production will go up to 1,04 billion tons in October of 2016/17 season. The data of USDA is very similar to the figures published by ICG.

According to the data of United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), 875,4 million tons of corn was produced in 2012. In 2013, the production increased by a record rate, reaching 1,17 billion tons, and 2014, it continued increasing and peaked to 1,38 billion tons.

The fluctuations in global corn consumption go in parallel to the fluctuations in its production. Global corn consumption was 980 million tons in 2014/15, and it is estimated to decrease to 958,5 million tons in 2015/16. And it is expected to go up again in 2016/17, reaching 1,21 billion tons.

There is a slight difference in the estimates of USDA with regard to global corn consumption. According to the reports of ICG, global corn consumption was 994 million tons in 2014/15, and it is estimated to decrease to 970 million tons in 2015/16. And it is expected to go up again in 2016/17, reaching 1,26 billion tons. Unfortunately the most recent data of FAO is from 2014, and does not cover the present year.

WORLD CORN PRODUCTION AND LEADER PRODUCER COUNTRIES The highest corn production in the world by years belongs to USA. According to the data of USDA; USA provides 361 million tons of world corn production which was 1 billion tons in 2014/15 season. Production amount of USA was decreased 345 million tons by declining 16 million tons in 2015/16 season. USA’s production amount is estimated to be 386,7 million tons in 2016/17 season. China comes second after USA in terms of corn production. Corn production of China which was 205 million tons in 2012/13 season rose to 215 million tons in season 2014/15, was risen 224 million tons in 2015/16. China’s production amount of corn is estimated to decrease 216 million tons by 8 million tons declining in 2016/17 season.

USA and China meet alone more than half of world corn production which was 970 million tons (2015/16). Brazil follows them with 67 million tons of production. EU countries coming right after Brazil reached to 58 million tons of production in 2015/16 season.

Argentina with 29 million tons, Mexico with 25,8 million tons, Ukraine with 23 million tons, India with 21,8 million tons, Canada with 13,6 million tons and Russia with 13 million tons follow the EU countries.

WORLD CORN CONSUMPTION AND MAJOR CONSUMER COUNTRIES Currently, USA is the biggest consumer of corn. In USA, consumption was 301,7 million tons in 2014/15 season. But with 3 million tons decrease, corn consumption of USA was decreased 298 million tons. The estimated consumption amount of USA for 2016/17 season is reached 314,5 million tons.

The largest consumption amount after USA belongs to China. The consumption amount of China has reached 202 million tons in 2014/15 season. It is risen 217,5 million tons by rising 15 million tons. The estimated consumption amount of China is nearly 226 million tons in 2016/17 season.

EU countries come after USA and China in corn consumption. The consumption amount of EU countries for 2014/15 season is 77,8 million tons. Declining 72,7 million tons in 2015/16 season, EU countries has 73,8 million tons estimated consumption amount for 2016/17 season.

Brazil with 55,3 million tons, Mexico with 36,9 million tons, India with 22,6 million tons, Japan with 15,2 million tons, and Egypt with 14,7 million tons and Canada with 13 million tons follow EU countries in world corn consumption.

WORLD CORN TRADE Almost 125-140 million tons of world corn production takes part in international trade. According to the data of USDA; the largest share in corn trade for 2014/15 season belongs to USA with 46,8 million tons. USA corn export reached 51 million tons by rising 5 million tons in 2015/16 season. It is istimated that the country’s export amount would increase 56,5 million tons in 2016/17 season.

The second largest corn exporter country after USA is Brazil. Brazil, which is realized 22 million tons corn export reached 35 million tons with record increasing in 2015/16 season. In 2016/17, the country is estimated to decrease 21 million tons.

According to the data of 2015/16 season; the third largest corn exporter country of the world is Argentina. Argentina which is realized 18 million tons corn export in 2014/15 season, increase export amount to 21,6 million tons in 2015/15 season. The country’s export activities are estimated to increase to 25,5 million tons in 2016/17 season.

Ukraine comes fourth after Argentina in world corn export. The corn export of Ukraine is 16,5 million ton in 2015/16 season. Russia with 4 million tons, Paraguay with 2,7 million tons and EU with 1,8 million tons follow .

The largest share in corn import belongs to Japan. According to the data of USDA, import amount of Japan alone is 14,6 million tons in 2014/15. Japon is realized 15 million tons corn import in 2015/16 season. The estimated import amount of Japan for 2016/17 season is 15 million tons. Second corn importer is Mexico. Mexico which is realized 11 million tons corn import in 2014/15 season, is increased its import amount to 13,8 million tons in 2015/16 season. Estimated import amount of Mexico for 2016/17 season is remained same.

EU countries with 13,4 million tons, South Korea with 10 million tons, Egypt and Vietnam with 8,6 million tons, Iran with 6 million tons follows Japan and Mexico in corn import.

According to the data of USDA; the estimated corn amount in the world for 2016/17 is nearly 139,7 million tons. This is 4 million less than the amount in 2015/16 season.

CORN PRODUCTION IN TURKEY Corn comes third after wheat and barley in terms of cultivated area in the world. The countries which have the highest production are USA, China, Brazil, Argentina, Mexico, India, Ukraine and Indonesia. Turkey is on the 24th ranked among producer countries.

When the data of Turkish statistical institution (TUIK) viewed, it can be said that corn production amount is realized 4,2 and 5,9 million tons between 2011 and 2014 years. The production amount rose to 6,4 million tons in 2015 by rising 450 thousand tons.

According to data of 2015; 36 percent of the corn production of Turkey is realized in Mediterranean Region, 26 percent of it in Southeastern Anatolia Region, 14 percent of it in Aegean region, 10 percent of it in Marmara Region, 9,7 percent of it in it Inner Anatolia, 4 percent of it in The Black Sea region and 0,3 percent of it in Eastern Anatolia Region is realized in.

Along with the corn production, yield has also showed a regular increase in Turkey for the last ten years. A yield which was 713 kilogram per decare in 2011 rose to 894 kilogram in 2013 and 930 kilogram in 2015. With these yield rates, Turkey is above the world average.

The usage area of corn in Turkey is very large. 78 percent of corn seed produced in our country is used as animal feed. 15 percent of corn is used for starch industry, 5 percent of it in public consumption and 3 percent of it is used in industrial area. The domestic usage of corn in our country is 6 – 6,5 million tons. Annually corn consumption per capita is 19 kilograms in Turkey.

WORLD GRAIN PRODUCTION AND CONSUMPTION According to the report published by International Grain Council (ICG) on 24 November 2016, global wheat production was 730 million tons in 2014/15 and it is expected to be 737 million tons in 2015/16. According to the forecast of ICG, global corn production will go up to 736 million tons in November of 2016/17 season. Global wheat consumption was 715 million tons in 2014/15, and it is estimated to decrease to 720 million tons in 2015/16. And it is expected to be 749 million tons for 2016/17.

According to the data by International Grain Council (ICG), global rice production was 480 million tons in 2014/15 and it is expected to decrease 472 million tons in 2015/16. According to the forecast of ICG, global rice production will be 483,7 million tons for 2016/17 season. Global rice consumption was 478 million tons in 2014/15, and it is estimated to decrease to 470 million tons in 2015/16. And it is expected to be 478 million tons for 2016/17.

According to the data by International Grain Council (ICG), global barley production was 144,1 million tons in 2014/15 and it is expected to increase 148,1 million tons in 2015/16. According to the forecast of ICG, global rice production will be 144 million tons for 2016/17 season. Global barley consumption was 141 million tons in 2014/15, and it is estimated to increase to 147 million tons in 2015/16. And it is expected to be 146 million tons for 2016/17.

According to the report published by International Grain Council (ICG) on 24 November 2016, Northern hemisphere planting of winter wheat was well advanced by late November. Crop conditions were reported to be mostly favorable ahead of the winter, although dryness was a worry in the US and cold weather was a concern in parts of the EU and Black Sea region.

Conditions for recently sown 2017/18 winter wheat in the northern hemisphere are mostly favourable. World wheat harvested area in 2017/18 is projected to be almost unchanged, with reductions in the US and Kazakhstan balanced by increases in Russia and North Africa.

REFERENCES 1. International Grain Council (IGC), Grain Market Report, 2017 2. Turkish Statistical Institute(TÜİK), https://www.tuik.gov.tr 3. International Grain Council (IGC), https://www.igc.int 4. United States Department of Agriculture, Foreign Agricultural Service (USDA FAS), https://apps.fas.usda.gov

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