Robust global production and elevated stock levels are keeping grain prices under pressure, while weaker income expectations are accelerating farmers’ shift toward oilseeds such as sunflower and soybeans, according to Saban Buttanrı, CEO of Agrolino Grains and Oil Seeds.

Buttanrı said global wheat prices are hovering around $240 per tonne, while barley is trading at a premium of $260–$270 per tonne, an inversion of normal pricing relationships that is supporting barley planting decisions. “Under normal conditions, barley should be priced about 10% below wheat. Right now we are seeing the opposite, and that motivates farmers,” he told Miller Magazine. He added that, heading into 2026, grain prices could remain broadly stable unless there is “a major shock” such as heightened geopolitical risk, war, drought, or a sharp rise in oil prices.

TURKEY SIGNALS HIGHER WHEAT AND BARLEY ACREAGE

In Turkey, where sowing for wheat and barley has been completed, Buttanrı said field signals point to an increase in planted area. He attributed the shift primarily to drought-related considerations and the relative attractiveness of barley prices. The trend is not limited to Türkiye, he said. “Not only in Turkey, but globally, I expect barley production to increase somewhat,” he added.

HIGH LAND RENTS SQUEEZE COMPETITIVENESS

Şaban Buttanrı

Buttanrı identified farmland rental costs as one of the main factors weighing on competitiveness in Turkey’s grain production and exports of processed products. “In places like Şanlıurfa, Diyarbakır and Amasya, land rents can be twice as expensive as Germany,” he said, arguing that a more “emotional” approach to land ownership domestically—versus a more “commercial” approach abroad—feeds into higher land and rental prices.

To illustrate competitiveness pressures, he cited a cost chain example from Canada: “In Canada, a farmer in Saskatchewan can deliver wheat to a silo and sell it for $200; ship it to the Port of Vancouver at a cost of $60–$70, and sell durum wheat to Italy for $300–$310,” he said. Turkey’s durum wheat price is around $345–$350 per tonne, he added, saying the gap complicates competition in flour and pasta exports.

TMO STOCKS, DOMESTIC SLOWDOWN AND WEAKER EXPORTS

Buttanrı said he did not see a stock problem, and he praised the Turkish Grain Board (TMO) for its inventory management. “TMO manages stocks very well; it has opened up durum wheat to producers and traders. I don’t see a problem in wheat. In corn, similarly, there is no stock issue,” he said. “In fact, prices have fallen, and those holding inventories complain that prices are not rising even though carrying costs are high.”

 Asked whether the market is sluggish, he said the slowdown is most acute for inventory holders in staples such as wheat and corn, while the export channel is also weaker. “The  Turkish flour and pasta industry does not have last years’ performance; the exchange rate effect is important here. Flour exports are down. Pasta exports close the year more stable at around 1.4 million tonnes,” he said. He added that in feed markets, TMO’s decision in recent months to keep prices steady to help curb inflation has also influenced trading dynamics.

STRONG STOCKS LIMIT PRICE RECOVERY

Buttanrı pointed to long-run supply growth as a key reason prices have stayed under pressure. Between 2000 and 2025, he said global population increased by roughly 30%, while corn production rose 218% and soybean production increased 237%. That growth has bolstered stocks and limited price upside, he said, adding that over the past five years global wheat and corn prices have traded in broadly similar ranges.

FARMERS SHIFT FROM GRAINS TO OILSEEDS

Buttanrı said weakening return prospects in grains are pushing farmers in Europe and the United States toward oilseeds, where the price-and-income outlook is stronger. He illustrated the widening price spread with a historical ratio: “In the past, when you sold 1.8 tonnes of wheat, you could buy 1 tonne of sunflower seed; today, nearly 3 tonnes of wheat equals 1 tonne of sunflower seed,” he said. He also compared farmgate prices across crops: in many regions, he said, farmers sell wheat in the field for $170–$180 per tonne, while sunflower seed can fetch around $580 per tonne and soybeans $350–$360 per tonne.

TURKEY’S STRUCTURAL OILSEED GAP AND CHINA’S DEMAND INFLUENCE

Buttanrı said Türkiye’s oilseed deficit should not be viewed only through the lens of vegetable oil, highlighting the knock-on effects on feed and animal-product exports. “Turkey imports 3.5 million tonnes of soybeans. If you can’t import soy, it’s not only oil; exports of eggs and poultry meat are also affected through the feed chain,” he said. “We need to be more self-sufficient; imports are getting more expensive and harder to secure,” he said.

On the global demand side, he said China remains decisive, describing Beijing’s approach as “smart” in balancing domestic production and imports. “China is currently the world’s largest wheat producer. In oilseeds, it imports 100 million tonnes of soybeans. But China is also taking systematic steps to develop its own agriculture and manages import-dependent policies very carefully,” he said.

2026 GRAIN MARKET OUTLOOK

Buttanrı said his baseline scenario for 2026 is a calm market, barring major disruptions. “If there are no political risks—war, drought, or a serious increase in oil prices—I think prices can continue in a stable way. I don’t see a major risk,” he said. He noted that corn and soy are critical inputs in poultry production, while sunflower meal and barley are key in cattle feeding, and he does not anticipate a broad supply problem in those inputs.

He also argued that Türkiye needs bolder steps in crop planning for import-dependent commodities, particularly by increasing farmer awareness of crops that are not yet widely adopted. “For example, soybeans are still not sufficiently on the farmer’s agenda; there should be promotion and information,” he said. “Our farmers generally do not have trouble selling wheat, barley, soybeans, canola or sunflower seed. We shouldn’t be afraid to plant crops we are not used to. If a farmer plants for one or two years and sees profits, other producers follow quickly.”