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USDA projects higher global wheat supply

10 November 20223 min reading

In its November World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report, USDA put the global wheat supply for 2022/23 at 1,059 million tons, 1.3 million tons higher than the previous report. World production is raised by 1 million tons to 782.7 million as larger production in Australia, Kazakhstan, and the UK more than offsets declines in Argentina and the EU.  

Global wheat production is forecast higher this month. Continued widespread favorable growing conditions in Australia and better-than-expected harvests in Kazakhstan and the United Kingdom are forecast to offset lower production in Argentina.

 “The global wheat outlook for 2022/23 is for increased supplies, consumption, trade, and ending stocks. Supplies are projected up 1.3 million tons to 1,059 million based on increases in beginning stocks and production.” USDA said. “World production is raised 1 million tons to 782.7 million as larger production in Australia, Kazakhstan, and the UK more than offsets declines in Argentina and the EU. Production in Australia is raised 1.5 million tons to 34.5 million as above average rain over the past month supported crop development and boosted yields, following widespread favorable conditions earlier in the growing season.” Argentina's production is lowered as continued widespread dry conditions through most of October further eroded yield potential, especially in northern areas.  

Feed and residual use is raised by 0.9 million tons as increases in the EU, South Korea, the Philippines, and Vietnam more than offset a decline in India. However, FSI consumption is lowered by 1.5 million tons primarily on decreases for Bangladesh and Indonesia.

The global forecast for trade is increased by 0.3 million tons to a record 208.7 million, primarily on higher exports from Australia, Kazakhstan, and the UK that more than offset a reduction in exports by Argentina. “Projected global ending stocks are increased 0.3 million tons to 267.8 million, with increases for Australia and India and a decrease for the EU accounting for most of the change.”

GLOBAL WHEAT PRICES

Global wheat prices have declined in most markets since the October  WASDE. Despite strong import demand and tender activity from the Middle East and North Africa offering support, concerns of a global recession causing a slowdown in demand have driven prices lower. U.S. quotes experienced the largest decrease of $26/ton to $433. EU quotes dropped $17/ton to $342 as Ukraine wheat supplies continue to flow out of the Black Sea. Canadian quotes fell $13/ton to $389 on a larger crop. Meanwhile, Argentine quotes declined only $10/ton as its upcoming crop size is downgraded. Russian quotes were down only $7/ton $320 on uncertainty in Black Sea export capabilities. Australian quotes, on the other hand, were up $20/ton with strong demand from Asia.


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