USDA’s first broad outlook for the 2026/27 grain season points to a market defined by softer global production, resilient consumption and tighter stocks. Wheat and corn output are forecast below last season’s record levels, while demand remains firm across food, feed and industrial channels. 

The global grain market is entering the 2026/27 season with a more defensive supply outlook, according to the latest Grain: World Markets and Trade report released by the United States Department of Agriculture’s Foreign Agricultural Service. After record or near-record production in several commodities during 2025/26, USDA now expects lower global output for wheat, corn and rice, while consumption is projected to remain strong or continue expanding.

USDA forecasts global wheat production at 819.1 million tons, down 24.8 million tons from the record 2025/26 crop. Global corn production is projected at 1.295 billion tons, lower than the previous year’s record, while rice production is forecast down 5.0 million tons to 537.8 million tons. 

WHEAT: EXPORTER SUPPLIES TIGHTEN AFTER RECORD CROP

Global wheat production is forecast to decline from the 2025/26 record, with the sharpest reductions concentrated among major exporters. The United States is projected to harvest 11.5 million tons less wheat than last season, a 21% decline. The European Union is forecast down 9.1 million tons, Argentina down 6.9 million tons, Australia down 6.0 million tons, Canada down 5.0 million tons, Kazakhstan down 4.3 million tons, and Russia down 4.3 million tons. 

This concentration of production losses in exporting countries is the most important feature of the wheat outlook. Even though some importers are expected to produce larger crops, the reduced availability in export origins is expected to lower global wheat trade. USDA forecasts global wheat trade at 214.1 million tons in 2026/27, down from 224.4 million tons in 2025/26. 

Russia is still expected to remain the world’s largest wheat exporter, with shipments forecast at 47.0 million tons, up 1.0 million tons from the revised 2025/26 estimate. USDA says ample carry-in stocks will help offset lower Russian production. The European Union is also expected to slightly raise exports to 31.0 million tons, supported by large carryover supplies, despite a smaller crop. Ukraine’s wheat exports are forecast to rise modestly to 13.0 million tons, reflecting large beginning stocks and a stronger position in the feed-quality wheat market. 

By contrast, several exporters are expected to lose market share. Argentina’s wheat exports are forecast to fall 4.5 million tons to 14.5 million tons, the United States down 3.0 million tons to 21.5 million tons, Kazakhstan down 3.0 million tons to 9.0 million tons, Canada down 2.0 million tons to 28.0 million tons, and Australia down 1.0 million tons to 25.0 million tons. 

IMPORT DEMAND FALLS IN NORTH AFRICA AND THE MIDDLE EAST

USDA expects global wheat import demand to contract, mainly because several major importing countries are forecast to produce larger domestic crops. North Africa and the Middle East stand out in this respect.

Egypt and Indonesia are projected to share the position of the world’s largest wheat importers in 2026/27, at 12.5 million tons each. Egypt’s imports are forecast down 700,000 tons, reflecting higher local production and stable demand. Indonesia’s imports are expected to decline 900,000 tons, due to large carryover supplies and lower feed demand. 

The largest import cut is expected in Morocco, where wheat imports are forecast to drop from 7.0 million tons to 4.0 million tons, a decline of 3.0 million tons, due to increased production. Turkey and Uzbekistan are each projected to reduce wheat imports by 1.5 million tons. Turkey’s wheat imports are forecast at 6.0 million tons, down from 7.5 million tons, with USDA citing larger production and reduced demand for re-exports. 

USDA also projects Turkey’s wheat exports at 6.0 million tons, down 500,000 tons from 2025/26. The report points to increased competition from Egypt in wheat flour exports and lower import demand from the Middle East. This suggests that Turkey’s flour export sector may face a more competitive regional environment, not only from traditional wheat suppliers but also from expanding flour and product exporters in nearby markets. 

Egypt, by contrast, is forecast to increase wheat exports to 2.3 million tons, supported by what USDA describes as aggressive growth in wheat flour and product exports to regional markets. India is also expected to return as a net wheat exporter, with exports forecast at 2.0 million tons, after the government lifted its wheat export ban amid abundant supplies. 

WHEAT PRICES REFLECT WEATHER RISK AND ORIGIN COMPETITION

USDA’s price section shows a market divided between weather-driven strength in some origins and softer prices in others. U.S. Hard Red Winter wheat export bids rose $17 per ton to $290 per ton, supported by severe drought in winter wheat production areas. Hard Red Spring wheat also increased, reaching $286 per ton, while Soft Red Winter and Soft White Winter prices were little changed. 

Among global origins, U.S. wheat was the most expensive in USDA’s comparison, quoted at $290 per ton. Argentina was quoted at $229, the EU at $232, Russia at $238, Canada at $277, and Australia at $281. This price spread underlines the competitive advantage of Black Sea and EU supplies in many import markets, especially if freight and quality specifications remain favorable. 

CORN: DEMAND REMAINS ROBUST DESPITE LOWER PRODUCTION

The corn outlook is also tightening, although the market remains large by historical standards. USDA forecasts global corn production at 1.295 billion tons, down from 1.313 billion tons in 2025/26. The decline is mainly driven by lower crops in the United States and Argentina, partly offset by larger production in Brazil and China. 

Global corn consumption is forecast to rise to 1.306 billion tons, exceeding production and pushing ending stocks lower. World corn ending stocks are projected to fall from 297.0 million tons in 2025/26 to 277.5 million tons in 2026/27. USDA says the drawdown will be driven chiefly by lower stocks in China and the United States. 

The United States is still expected to remain the world’s top corn exporter, despite a smaller crop. U.S. corn exports are forecast at 80.0 million tons, down from 82.0 million tons in 2025/26. Argentina’s corn exports are projected to fall 3.0 million tons to 38.0 million tons, while Brazil’s exports are forecast to rise 1.0 million tons to 44.0 million tons on the back of a record crop. Ukraine’s corn exports are also forecast up 1.0 million tons to 23.0 million tons, supported by high carry-in stocks and only a slight production decline. 

Brazil is one of the most important stories in the corn outlook. USDA forecasts Brazilian corn production at a record 139 million tons. However, the report emphasizes that domestic use, rather than exports, remains the main driver of Brazilian demand. Food, seed and industrial use has more than doubled over the past five years as corn ethanol capacity has expanded. 

FEED DEMAND SUPPORTS CORN IMPORTS

Corn import demand remains firm in several feed-deficit regions. Mexico is forecast to increase corn imports to 27.0 million tons, up 700,000 tons, due to a slightly smaller crop and robust feed demand. Vietnam’s corn imports are projected at 15.9 million tons, up 600,000 tons, reflecting strong growth in feed demand. Egypt’s corn imports are forecast at 12.8 million tons, up 300,000 tons, while the European Union is expected to import 19.5 million tons, up 1.0 million tons, as corn helps offset lower wheat and barley production in feed channels. 

Turkey is also expected to remain an important corn buyer. USDA forecasts Turkey’s corn imports at 5.2 million tons, up 300,000 tons from 2025/26, citing larger feed demand and a smaller domestic corn harvest. At the same time, Turkey’s barley imports are forecast to collapse from 1.3 million tons to just 150,000 tons, as domestic barley production rebounds. 

BARLEY AND SORGHUM: CHINA REMAINS THE ANCHOR BUYER

USDA forecasts global barley production at 155.0 million tons, marginally higher year over year. Smaller crops in Australia, the EU, Russia and Canada are expected to be offset by better harvests in Turkey, Morocco, Syria and Algeria. Global barley trade is forecast lower, largely because of reduced exports from Australia, with smaller declines also expected from Canada, Russia, Argentina and Kazakhstan. 

China remains the dominant barley importer, although its purchases are forecast to decline from 11.5 million tons to 10.5 million tons. USDA attributes this to smaller Australian exports reducing overall barley availability. China is also expected to remain the dominant sorghum importer, with imports steady at 7.5 million tons, accounting for around 80% of global sorghum imports. 

Global sorghum production is forecast to rise to 62.7 million tons, supported mainly by higher output in Brazil and Sub-Saharan Africa. However, global sorghum trade is forecast lower, as reduced exports from the United States and Australia offset higher shipments from Argentina. 

RICE: INDIA’S STOCKS KEEP EXPORTS COMPETITIVE

In rice, USDA forecasts a modestly tighter global balance but continued export strength from Asia. Global rice production is forecast down 5.0 million tons to 537.8 million tons, with the largest cuts in India, Burma and the United States. Consumption is forecast to rise 3.8 million tons to 541.4 million tons, driven by South Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa. Ending stocks are projected down 3.6 million tons to 192.7 million tons. 

India remains the dominant force in the global rice market. Despite a smaller crop, USDA forecasts India’s rice exports at a record 25.0 million tons, equal to nearly 40% of global trade. Large stocks and competitive prices are expected to maintain India’s leading role in basmati, parboiled and regular white rice markets. 

Vietnam is forecast to export 8.0 million tons, Thailand 7.5 million tons, Pakistan 5.0 million tons, and Cambodia 4.1 million tons. Burma’s exports are expected to fall 500,000 tons to 2.1 million tons due to a smaller crop and competition from lower-priced Asian exporters. 

Rice import demand is expected to grow in Sub-Saharan Africa and parts of Southeast Asia. The Philippines remains the world’s largest rice importer, forecast at 5.6 million tons, supported by population growth and rice’s continued importance as a staple food. Bangladesh’s imports are expected to rise 500,000 tons to 2.0 million tons because of a smaller crop. 

CHINA, INDIA AND BRAZIL RESHAPE GLOBAL BALANCES

Beyond individual commodities, USDA’s cross-commodity outlook highlights the growing importance of China, India and Brazil in shaping global grain flows. China’s total grain production is forecast at a record 604.0 million tons, about 1% higher than a year earlier. More than half of that total comes from an expected record 307.0-million-ton corn crop. China’s corn imports are forecast at 6.0 million tons, far below the much larger volumes seen in recent years, while wheat and rice imports are expected to remain below tariff-rate quota levels. 

India’s role is also expanding across multiple commodities. Its large wheat and rice stocks allow the country to return as a small net wheat exporter and remain the dominant rice exporter. At the same time, India’s corn production and consumption are expected to keep growing, supported by policy incentives for ethanol demand. 

Brazil is increasingly important not only as a corn exporter but also as a domestic demand growth story. Its record corn crop supports exports, but USDA stresses that expanding ethanol production and industrial use are absorbing a growing share of supplies. This may limit how much of Brazil’s production growth translates directly into additional export availability.