In its May 2023 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report, USDA provides the first insight into the 23/24 season. Global production is forecast at a record 789.8 million tonnes, up 1.5 million tonnes. World consumption is forecast at 791.7 million tonnes, down 3 million from last year due to reduced feed and residual use.

The global wheat outlook for 2023/24 is for lower supplies, trade, consumption, and ending stocks compared with 2022/23, USDA says. The largest increase is forecast for Argentina, which is anticipated to recover following its drought-affected crop the prior year. India is estimated up 6 percent to a record 110.0 million tons with rising domestic prices spurring additional area. EU production is forecast to rise with favorable weather across the region, except for Spain. Canada is also expected up to a near-record on expanded area. China is projected up with higher yields. The United States is forecast to rise slightly on additional winter wheat harvested area, with all wheat production expected up just 1 percent to 45.2 million tons.

These gains are partially offset by lower crops elsewhere. Russia is expected to have an 11-percent decline in production, with reduced area and yield. After 3 consecutive record crops, Australia is forecast down 26 percent on anticipated lower yields. Ukraine is forecast down more than 20 percent from the prior year and at half the level reached in 2021/22. Area harvested is lower amid ongoing conflict, while reduced access to inputs limits yield potential.

WORLD WHEAT CONSUMPTION SET TO DECLINE

Projected world consumption at 791.7 million tons is down 3 million compared with last year on reduced feed and residual use. Larger feed grain supplies in 2023/24 make wheat less competitive. The largest feed and residual reductions are in Ukraine, India, Russia, and China. Global trade is projected at 209.7 million tons, a decline of 5.5 million from 2022/23. Russia is expected to once again be the largest exporter followed by the EU, Canada, Australia, the United States, and Argentina. Sharp decreases in exports for Australia, India, and Ukraine more than offset increases for Argentina, the EU, and Russia.

GLOBAL WHEAT STOCKS FORECAST TO FALL

Projected ending stocks for 2023/24 are down 1.9 million tons to 264.3 million. Stocks are forecast to decline in Russia and the EU but increase in China and India. If realized, this would represent the lowest global stocks-to-use ratio since 2014/15 with more than half of global stocks held in China.

The largest reduction is for Russia, where production is forecast down sharply from last year’s record. Russia exports are forecast to remain robust, supported by a reduction in exportable supplies from Ukraine. EU stocks are forecast down 9 percent from the prior year. U.S. stocks are forecast down 7 percent to 15.1 million tons, the lowest stock level since 2007/08. Meanwhile, China stocks are forecast marginally higher and would account for more than half of global stocks. India stocks are anticipated to rise on rebounding production and continuation of its export ban.