The USDA’s August WASDE report signals a tighter global wheat outlook for 2025/26, with supplies cut to 1.07 billion tonnes and ending stocks dropping to their lowest level in nine years. Lower production in China, Brazil, and Argentina — only partly offset by gains in the EU — underpins the supply decline, while U.S. exports receive an upward revision on competitive pricing. 

The latest USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report for August 2025 projects a slightly tighter global wheat balance sheet for the 2025/26 season, with lower supplies, reduced consumption, higher trade, and smaller ending stocks.

Supplies are projected to drop 2.5 million tonnes to 1,069.6 million, primarily due to lower production forecasts for China, Brazil, and Argentina, only partially offset by a larger outlook for the European Union. Smaller beginning stocks are also forecast for several countries, including Ukraine, Saudi Arabia, and the Philippines.

TRADE UP, STOCKS DOWN

In its country-level revisions, USDA cut China’s wheat crop by 2.0 million tonnes to 140.0 million, based on National Bureau of Statistics data showing lower-than-expected yields. In contrast, EU production was raised by 1.0 million tonnes to 138.3 million, the highest since 2021/22, after months of favorable weather improved yield and quality prospects — particularly in Romania and Slovakia.

On the demand side, global consumption is lowered by 1.1 million tonnes to 809.5 million, mainly due to reduced feed and residual use in China, Indonesia, and the Philippines, only partly offset by higher use in the EU.

World trade is forecast 0.5 million tonnes higher at 213.5 million, driven primarily by increased exports from the United States. Projected 2025/26 ending stocks are trimmed by 1.4 million tonnes to 260.1 million — the lowest since 2015/16.

IMPORT CUTS IN ASIA, GAINS IN LATIN AMERICA

In the import market, the USDA revised Indonesia’s 2025/26 wheat imports down by 500,000 tons to 11.5 MMT, citing weaker feed demand relative to corn. Philippines imports are reduced by 300,000 tons to 6.9 MMT due to lower feed use and higher beginning stocks. In contrast, Ecuador’s imports are raised by 500,000 tons to 2.2 MMT, driven by rising aquaculture feed demand. Brazil’s import forecast is up 300,000 tons to 7.2 MMT on expectations of a smaller domestic crop, while Thailand sees a 300,000-ton increase to 4.7 MMT amid sustained feed wheat demand. Vietnam’s imports are lifted by 200,000 tons to 5.6 MMT, reflecting steady milling and feed requirements. 

On the export side, the United States is projected to ship 23.5 MMT, an increase of 500,000 tons from last month, supported by competitive prices and strong recent sales. Conversely, Brazil’s export forecast is trimmed by 200,000 tons to 2.5 MMT as a result of its reduced crop and smaller exportable surplus.

MONTH-ON-MONTH CHANGES (AUG VS. JUL)

Compared to the July WASDE:

• Supplies fell by 2.5 MMT, with the bulk of the cut coming from China’s lower yield estimate and reduced carry-in for Ukraine, Saudi Arabia, and the Philippines.
• Production was reduced by 1.65 MMT, as downgrades in China (-2.0 MMT), Brazil, and Argentina (-0.3 MMT) outweighed the EU’s +1.0 MMT increase.
• Consumption dropped by 1.09 MMT, led by feed/residual cuts in Asia, partially balanced by stronger EU usage.
• Trade rose by 0.47 MMT, entirely on the back of higher U.S. exports.
• Ending stocks slipped by 1.44 MMT, reflecting both the smaller crop and reduced beginning inventories.

EXPORTERS – AUGUST FORECASTS VS. JULY

• United States: 23.5 MMT (+0.5 MMT) – boosted by competitive pricing and strong early-season sales.
• Russia: 46.0 MMT (unchanged) – remains the world’s top exporter.
• EU: 32.5 MMT (unchanged).
• Australia: 23.0 MMT (unchanged).
• Canada: 27.0 MMT (unchanged).
• Argentina: 13.0 MMT (unchanged).
• Ukraine: 15.5 MMT (unchanged).

IMPORTERS – AUGUST FORECASTS VS. JULY

• Egypt: 13.0 MMT (unchanged) – remains top global buyer.
• Indonesia: 11.5 MMT (-0.5 MMT) – reduced feed use.
• China: 6.0 MMT (unchanged).
• Turkey: 7.5 MMT (unchanged).
• Philippines: 6.9 MMT (-0.3 MMT) 
• Algeria: 9.0 MMT (unchanged).
• Bangladesh: 6.7 MMT (unchanged).

The August revisions point to a market that is incrementally tighter than last month, with slightly firmer trade flows and a continued drawdown in stocks. The China/EU production shift is the defining feature of the update, while the U.S. export increase provides marginal lift to global flows.

World wheat stocks are now at their lowest in nearly a decade, meaning supply shocks — whether weather, logistics, or geopolitical — could have an outsized price impact. With ending stocks at their lowest in nine years, buyers may face heightened price sensitivity and increased competition for high-quality supplies.