Ukrainian corn export values climbed to their highest level in five months in late January, as strong Turkish demand tightened the prompt market while logistics and infrastructure constraints at Ukrainian ports limited available supply, according to S&P Global Energy analysis.
In an analysis by Amrutha Dileep Chingoroth, S&P Global Energy assessed Ukrainian corn FOB POC at $222.50/mt on Jan. 30 for the Feb. 27–March 13 loading window, up from $218/mt on Jan. 5. Market sources quoted in the report said these were the firmest levels since the start of the 2025/26 marketing season, following assessments around $213/mt in early October 2025.
TURKEY EMERGES AS THE KEY DEMAND DRIVER
The report said Turkish buying—linked to the feed and poultry sector—was a central factor behind the rally. While Turkey has posted solid domestic corn production this season, sources cited said historically low carry-in stocks and growing poultry output have increased import needs. A trader cited in the report shared Ukrainian port line-up data indicating 556,954 mt of corn was loaded from Ukrainian ports to Turkey during Jan. 1–23, after 998,520 mt shipped during Oct.–Dec. 2025.
Amid firmer domestic prices, Turkey’s state grain board TMO released corn from stocks and set a domestic sale price. The report added that importers were also watching the possibility of a new import quota, with industry lobbying referenced by market participants. Sources quoted by S&P Global Energy also noted that Turkish demand had begun shifting toward April loadings, with February coverage described as largely secured.
Beyond Turkey, Ukrainian traders cited in the report pointed to additional interest from Italy, the Netherlands and Spain. Port line-up figures shared by a trader showed 519,191 mt loaded to Italy during Jan. 1–23, after 916,079 mt shipped in Oct.–Dec. 2025. China was mentioned as a potential destination, but market participants said indications were not competitive versus other outlets at the time.
LOGISTICS TIGHTEN SUPPLY, UPSIDE RISK PERSISTS
The report said the demand pulse has coincided with tighter availability at ports, with slower farm-to-port flows attributed to domestic logistics and infrastructure constraints. Rising domestic CPT levels were cited as another sign of tightening supply, while some sellers warned that weather risks—including upcoming frosts—could further complicate inland deliveries. Several market participants told that prices could extend gains if Turkish demand remains active and logistical frictions persist.