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Ukraine’s grain harvest projection cut due to heat and drought

09 August 20242 min reading

The Ukrainian Grain Association (UGA) has revised its 2024 harvest estimate for grain and oilseeds, reducing it by 2.8 million tonnes to a total of 71.8 million tonnes. This adjustment is due to the adverse effects of ongoing hot and dry conditions in Ukraine, which have negatively impacted the yields of late-harvest grains and oilseeds.

The UGA estimates that the wheat harvest will reach 19.8 million tonnes in 2024, compared to 22 million tonnes in 2023. Wheat exports for the 2024/2025 marketing year are expected to be around 13 million tonnes, factoring in nearly 1 million tonnes of carry-over stocks from the previous season.

Barley production is projected to be 4.95 million tonnes this year, with potential exports of 2 million tonnes for the 2024/2025 marketing year. Corn harvest expectations have declined by 2.1 million tonnes due to heat, bringing the forecast to 23.4 million tonnes. Potential exports of corn could reach nearly 18.5 million tonnes. Sunflower production is expected to be 12.8 million tonnes, down from 14.2 million tonnes last year. Sunflower exports could reach up to 250,000 tonnes, with processing for oil estimated at 12.5 million tonnes. The rapeseed harvest is forecasted at 4.3 million tonnes, with exports potentially reaching 3.4 million tonnes. Soybean yields are anticipated to be 4.8 million tonnes, with exports at 3.5 million tonnes.

Given these conditions, Ukraine’s total agricultural exports for the 2024/2025 marketing season may reach 41 million tonnes. This is a decrease from last season’s 57.5 million tonnes of agricultural products and raw materials. Since the beginning of the current marketing year in July, Ukraine has already exported nearly 3.44 million tonnes of grain.

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