At the recent Berlin ECE commodities conference, two major stories dominated discussions — the unexpectedly firm tone of Ukraine’s domestic corn market and the growing unease over Egypt’s state grain procurement system. According to Fastmarkets, both developments highlight how logistics and governance — not just supply and demand — are increasingly shaping sentiment across global grain markets.

As highlighted in the Fastmarkets report authored by Masha Belikova, Yuri Sirosh, and Devora Nedyalkova, Ukrainian domestic corn prices have remained stable to firm since the start of the new crop season — a development that has surprised market participants expecting harvest pressure to drive prices lower. Delegates at the Berlin ECE conference noted that the primary support factors are harvest delays, persistent rains, and logistical bottlenecks, rather than demand recovery. “The harvest was delayed, underpinned by railway logistics issues, especially from northern regions of the country,” one trader told Fastmarkets.

The report points out that Ukraine’s railway network continues to suffer daily disruptions from missile and drone strikes, stretching delivery times to ports from two to ten days. This has led to a situation where farmers are in no rush to sell, while exporters are preoccupied with November loading programs, effectively tightening short-term supply and keeping domestic prices supported.

Fastmarkets cites trade data showing that roughly 3 million tonnes of corn had already been booked for November shipment on an FOB Pivdennyi–Odesa–Chornomorsk (POC) basis. Meanwhile, only 7.73 million tonnes had been harvested by October 23 — 50% below the same period last year. According to Fastmarkets, most market participants anticipate steady prices through November, followed by a likely correction in December, once harvesting accelerates and fresh export demand remains limited.

LOGISTICS AND QUALITY RISKS ADD COMPLEXITY

The Fastmarkets analysis adds that wet grain and drying costs are becoming key concerns, as persistent rainfall has delayed harvest and increased post-harvest expenses. Additionally, contract execution has slowed, not because of poor yields but due to weather-related delays and logistical congestion. Traders quoted by Fastmarkets expect that “December will be different,” predicting a significant downward adjustment in prices to maintain export competitiveness once new volumes reach the market.

EGYPT’S PROCUREMENT UNDER SCRUTINY

Turning to North Africa, Fastmarkets reports that confidence in Egypt’s state grain procurement has weakened amid payment delays linked to Mustaqbal Misr (Future of Egypt) — the new state-owned grain importer that replaced GASC (General Authority for Supply Commodities) in 2024. According to data reviewed by Fastmarkets, at least 15 vessels carrying around 365,000 tonnes of wheat are currently waiting in Egyptian ports, some since mid-September, awaiting payment clearance. Sources told Fastmarkets that it remains unclear whether the delays stem from Mustaqbal Misr itself or its intermediary, Isotech. “Misr, Isotech – both. It doesn’t really matter. The market sees them as one and the same,” one trader said.

The report notes that since entering the market, Mustaqbal Misr has attempted to procure grain directly, outside of formal tenders. However, extended payment periods — up to 270 days via letters of credit — have discouraged suppliers, particularly smaller traders with limited liquidity. As Fastmarkets highlights, larger global houses with stronger cash reserves can still engage, but many smaller exporters are avoiding Egypt. The result is reduced competition, higher premiums, and slower delivery, all of which have eroded confidence in Egypt’s once-reliable procurement system.

WHEAT IMPORT PATTERNS AND MARKET IMPACT

According to Fastmarkets and official Egyptian data, Egypt remains the world’s largest wheat importer, projected to buy about 13 million tonnes in 2025/26. Yet from January to June 2025, imports fell by 25% year on year to 4.7 million tonnes. Russia still accounted for 68% of supply, followed by Ukraine (23%) and Romania (4%). Interestingly, Fastmarkets reports that from July to mid-October 2025, Ukrainian wheat shipments to Egypt rose sharply — to 1.68 million tonnes, while Russian deliveries declined 17%.

Despite operational challenges, Mustaqbal Misr has continued direct purchases of French wheat (around $240/mt FOB) and Kazakh wheat (32,000 tonnes). These deals were reportedly executed without problems, but the payment reliability issue continues to overshadow future tenders.