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Türkiye eyes stronger wheat and barley harvests as corn output falls

14 April 20264 min reading

USDA projects Türkiye’s 2026/27 wheat and barley crops to rebound sharply on the back of stronger autumn and winter rainfall, with wheat output rising to 19.8 million tonnes and barley to 7.0 million tonnes. Corn, however, is forecast to fall to 7.0 million tonnes as farmers shift away from water-intensive crops, while flour exports are expected to recover only partially and remain below former levels.

Türkiye is heading into the 2026/27 marketing year with a more favorable grain production outlook after a weather-stressed 2025/26 season. In its latest Grain and Feed Annual report, USDA’s Ankara office says improved precipitation during the hydrological year has significantly strengthened prospects for winter crops. According to the report, rainfall between October 2025 and February 2026 was 24 percent above the long-term average and 75 percent higher than in the same period a year earlier, supporting expectations for a strong recovery in wheat and barley yields.


USDA forecasts Türkiye’s 2026/27 wheat production at 19.8 million tonnes, up 20 percent from the revised 16.5 million tonnes estimated for 2025/26 and potentially the second-highest crop on record. Harvested area is projected to expand by 150,000 hectares to 7.45 million hectares, with planting gains particularly pronounced in southeastern Anatolia as some farmers switch from cotton to wheat. Industry sources cited in the report say some even see scope for output to exceed the previous record of 21.0 million tonnes if spring rains remain favorable.

Barley is also expected to rebound strongly. Production is forecast at 7.0 million tonnes in 2026/27, up about 35 percent from 5.1 million tonnes a year earlier, helped by an 8 percent increase in area to 3.75 million hectares and better yield prospects. The report notes that relatively strong domestic barley prices, drought concerns at planting time and expectations of supportive TMO procurement all encouraged growers to expand sowings.

CORN OUTPUT TO FALL AS WATER POLICY RESHAPES PLANTING

Corn moves in the opposite direction. USDA expects 2026/27 corn output to fall 11 percent year on year to 7.0 million tonnes, with harvested area declining 10 percent to 550,000 hectares. The main driver is the government’s Agricultural Production Plan, which promotes less water-intensive crops in water-scarce regions such as Central Anatolia and the Aegean. Some regional expansion in southeastern Anatolia is expected, but not enough to offset national losses. Rice, by contrast, is forecast to edge higher, with paddy production rising to 866,000 tonnes as better water availability supports a modest increase in planted area.

On the demand side, wheat consumption is projected at 18.8 million tonnes in 2026/27, only slightly above the previous year, with food-grade demand broadly stable and feed use rising modestly. Corn consumption, however, is expected to increase to 12.0 million tonnes from a revised 11.6 million tonnes in 2025/26, driven mainly by the feed sector. Türkiye’s compound feed production rose nearly 4.8 percent in 2025 to 30.74 million tonnes, with ruminant feed output up 6.3 percent and total poultry feed up 2.6 percent.

WHEAT IMPORTS DECLINE AS FLOUR EXPORT RECOVERY STAYS LIMITED

Trade flows remain central to the outlook. USDA forecasts 2026/27 wheat imports at 6.5 million tonnes, down from 7.2 million tonnes in 2025/26. Even with a near-record domestic harvest, Türkiye is expected to continue importing wheat under the inward processing regime to supply its export-oriented flour industry. Still, the report is clear that import volumes are unlikely to return to levels seen several years ago, indicating that flour exports will remain below their former peak. Wheat exports in grain equivalent are forecast at 6.5 million tonnes in 2026/27, up slightly from 6.3 million tonnes in 2025/26, but still lagging 2023/24 levels for a third straight year. From June to January 2025/26, flour exports were down 3 percent year on year to 2.2 million tonnes in wheat grain equivalent, with Iraq still the leading destination despite lower demand.

RISING FEED DEMAND DRIVES CORN IMPORTS HIGHER

Corn production is falling while feed demand continues to rise, which is why corn imports are forecast to increase sharply to 5.7 million tonnes in 2026/27 from 4.2 million tonnes in 2025/26. Domestic corn prices in March were about 13,750 TL per tonne, up roughly 30 percent year on year in lira terms, while TMO was selling corn to feed producers at a discounted 12,200 TL per tonne. This points to continuing cost sensitivity for the livestock and feed industries, even if Black Sea corn remains available at relatively stable dollar-denominated prices.

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