Farmers across Turkey shifted to wheat and other grain products since sunflower and cotton prices remained below the 2021 level along with the rising costs. It is estimated that the shift to wheat planting reaches 30 percent in some regions. Especially in the southern Gaziantep and Şanlıurfa provinces, the trend towards durum and bread wheat has reached 25-30 percent. 

Prices play a major role in the farmer’s choice of planting crops in Turkey. As can be understood from the latest Phenological Evaluation-Field Research Report of the Turkish Grain Board (TMO), it is seen that the 2022 wheat and barley purchase price and premium support of the Institution led to a change in the planting preferences of the farmer. It is observed that there is a tendency towards grains, especially wheat and barley. In oil sunflower and cotton, the fact that the price remains below the 2021 level despite the increasing costs keeps the farmers away from these products.

The decrease in the prices of cotton, corn, and sunflower following their harvest in Turkey and abroad drove the farmers away from these products. It is stated that close to 30 percent of the cotton cultivation areas, especially in the rock bottom prices, have turned to wheat cultivation. TMO’s Phenological Evaluation Report confirms this. According to the report, there is a tendency towards wheat and cereals from alternative products from all seven regions.

 The report anticipates that cotton, oil sunflower and poppy cultivated areas across the country will decrease this year compared to last year, and wheat and barley are planted in most of these areas. According to the observations from the field, the interviews with the producer and NGOs, it has been determined that there has been a transition from other products to cereals with the contribution of the on-site purchasing policy implemented by TMO throughout the country this year, and therefore, cereal cultivated areas increased. It is also observed that there is an increase in the use of certified seeds and fertilizers this year compared to last year.

Gürsel Erbap, Chairman and CEO of Doruk Un, with whom we had the opportunity to chat in the last week of December 2022, made an observation confirming the report of TMO. Erbap said that with incentives, ministry support, and purchase guarantees, the producer entered a local seed mobilization and there is a great demand for wheat production in particular. He stated that if the farmer’s interest in wheat continues, he will be more likely to purchase wheat (that he used to import) within the country, and the sector will earn more foreign currency.

1-30 November Precipitation Graph (mm)

Very interesting data in the report drew attention, in which the rainfall received by the country on the basis of regions, plantings, and grain plant growth have been evaluated. Particularly, the distribution of precipitations in November has revealed a very interesting situation.

According to the report, November precipitation in Turkey has been below normal for the last 5 years. On the other hand, the precipitation throughout the region was below normal in other regions except for the Southeastern Anatolia Region (SAR). The highest decrease was recorded in the Central Anatolia Region with 46%. While the precipitations in November decreased by more than 80% in the northern parts of Erzurum and Konya, and around Kırıkkale, Sinop and Kars, it increased by more than 100% in the northern parts of Adıyaman, Diyarbakır, and Şanlıurfa. Adıyaman received its highest precipitation for the last 18 years. The highest precipitation was recorded in Adıyaman with 151.2 mm and the lowest in Kırıkkale with 7.3 mm.

The Southeastern Anatolia Region, which was expected to be adversely affected by drought, even surpassed the Black Sea Region in November precipitation. Rainfall in SAR, which received around 20 mm of rain in November last year, increased nearly 4 times compared to the same month of the previous year. In November 2022, this region received more than 90 mm of precipitation, making it the region with the highest precipitation among all 7.

NOVEMBER RAINFALL

Compared to the avarage levels, it rained 57% more in the Southeastern Anatolia Region and 5-46% less in other regions. Compared to the last year; it rained 10-100% more in the Mediterranean, Eastern, and Southeastern Anatolia Regions, and 11-47% less in other regions. While it rained 77.0 mm in the 2 months period (from October 1 to November 30, 2022) in the country, the normal was 107.7 mm (1991-2020) and 76.2 mm last year. There is a 29% decrease in precipitation compared to the normal, and this year’s cumulative precipitation is at last year’s levels. Except for the Southeastern Anatolia Region, all our regions rained below normal, and the highest decrease was in the Marmara Region with 58%.

WHEAT PLANTING INCREASES IN ALL REGIONS

Under the subheading 2022/23 Season Grain Plant Development Assessment, the precipitations in Turkey in November were stated to be below normal and around last year’s precipitation. According to the report, there is a 29% decrease in precipitation in the cumulative (2-month) period from October 1 to November 30, 2022, and this year’s cumulative precipitation is at last year’s levels.

According to the report, as of the end of November, winter grain plantings were 80 percent complete across the country. In the same period last year, it was 90 percent. Plantings continue in regions outside the Eastern Anatolia Region, especially in areas where cotton, second-crop corn, and sugar beet are harvested and are expected to be completed in early January.

Despite the continuation of winter plantings, according to the observations in the field, there is a tendency to plant grains, especially wheat and barley. According to the assessments by region, there is a shift;

 From corn to cereals in the Central Anatolia Region,

 From sunflower, canola, and poppy to wheat in the Marmara Region (especially in Balıkesir),

 From sunflower, cotton, and corn to wheat in the Mediterranean Region,

 From sunflower to wheat and barley in the Black Sea Region,

 From corn, oil sunflower, and poppy to cereals in the Aegean Region,

 From forage crops to cereals in the Eastern Anatolia Region,

 From cotton to cereals in the Southeastern Anatolia Region.

In some provinces in the Central Anatolia and Central Aegean regions, the distribution of plant headings to the field surface is irregular due to the lack of precipitation and the developments have not reached the expected level. It is predicted that the headings will be completed to a large extent with the rains received in the last period.

PLANTING EVALUATION

Central Anatolia Region: 37% of Turkey’s wheat planting

The region’s November precipitation is 18.9 mm, whereas the normal is 35.1 mm, and the November 2021 precipitation was 35.9 mm. There is a 46% decrease in precipitation compared to the normal, and a 47% decrease compared to the precipitation in November 2021.

1 October-30 November Cumulative Precipitation Graph (mm)

Due to the high cost of drying corn in Konya, the producers left the product to dry on the field, delaying the corn harvest. In addition, the grain planting was delayed due to the continuation of the sugar beet harvest and insufficient precipitation in dry areas. Although the germination of the seed and the condition of the headings completely change depending on the precipitation, the headings are insufficient and irregular due to the lack of precipitation. The fact that the air temperatures in Konya plunged to below zero for a few days caused stress in the plants, they remained weak and the development did not reach the expected level.

In Aksaray, Kırıkkale and Kırşehir, the distribution of plant headings to the field surface is irregular due to the lack of precipitation. In Kırıkkale, in the majority of the places, no germination is seen. 

Grain plantings in Ankara were completed in the second half of November, and it is stated that all headings took place with the rains in October and November.

While the rate of certified wheat seed use is 40% in Kayseri, it is estimated that this rate is 35-40% in wheat and 25% in barley in Kırıkkale. It has been observed that there is a 25% decrease in the use of bottom fertilizer in Kayseri compared to the same period of the previous year, but it is predicted that there will be an increase in the use of top fertilizer with the experience of last year.

A significant increase has been observed in oat cultivation on the Kayseri Uzunyayla Plateau. In Eskişehir, grain planting has been completed in areas other than corn and sugar beet harvests. Although the headings still continue, it has been determined that a moist situation has occurred in some areas due to a lack of moisture in the soil.

It is reported that the rate of fertilizer use in Eskişehir has increased slightly compared to the previous year, and it is stated tht the fallow areas have decreased compared to the previous years, and cereals are planted in these areas.

In order to obtain more products per unit area in Kırşehir, the use of certified seeds and bottom fertilizers increased by 50% compared to the previous year. In addition, 50%-grant-supported certified bread wheat seeds were distributed to farmers who have a field of less than 100 decares registered to the ÇKS (National Registry of Farmers).

Winter plantings have been completed, germination has begun in Sivas, and no adverse effects have been detected in plant growth. There has been a transition from corn, potatoes, fallow and vacant lands to cereals (wheat, barley, rye, oats, and triticale) planting last year.

Due to the grain purchase prices and policies implemented by TMO in 2022, an increase in grain planting areas is expected in Aksaray this year. It is estimated that there will be a 5% increase in bread wheat planting, a 1% increase in durum wheat planting, and a 1-2% transition from barley to triticale and rye in Kırıkkale.

Due to the incentive premiums granted by the Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry and the high wheat yield in Kırşehir, it is observed that there are shifts to wheat and barley from other products.

Compared to last year, an increase of 3-5% in barley, 1-3% in bread wheat, and 2-3% in durum wheat are predicted in Konya, especially in the Karaman region. It is seen that there is a 10% shift from other products to bread wheat in Yozgat.

Southeastern Anatolia Region: 15% of Turkey’s wheat planting

The region’s November precipitation is 90.7 mm, whereas the normal is 57.7 mm, and the November 2021 precipitation was 20.4 mm. There was an increase of 57% compared to the normal, and more than 100% compared to November 2021.

Since the amount of precipitation in Şanlıurfa was higher than last year and its normal, the plantings were suspended. Grain planting will accelerate following the corn harvest in irrigated areas. 50% of the plantings have been completed in Diyarbakır, 90% in Batman, and 96% in Adıyaman.

In Adıyaman, a shift to lentils, and also a 7%-shift from wheat to barley and chickpea planting occurred due to the distribution of lentil seeds by the Provincial Directorate of Agriculture and Forestry; a mild shift from barley to red lentil, approximately 20% shift from cotton to wheat in Şanlıurfa, and around 10% shift from barley to wheat and shelled red lentils around in Batman. 

On the Diyarbakır-Mardin line, a 15%-increase in wheat and 5% in barley is observed in the cultivation areas compared to the previous year. Some of the red lentils planted areas in the region last year turned to barley, while most of the corn and cotton planted areas turned to wheat. Significant increases in wheat cultivation are expected in Batman, Diyarbakır, Mardin, and Şanlıurfa.

Marmara Region: 11% of Turkey’s wheat cultivation

The region’s November precipitation is 39.6 mm whereas the normal is 72.4 mm, and the November 2021 precipitation was 64.0 mm. There was a 45% decrease in precipitation compared to the normal, and 38% compared to November 2021. Plantings have been completed in Tekirdağ and are about to be completed in other provinces. Rainfall in late November and early December had a positive impact on headings.

Delayed rainfall in the region postponed the grain sowing time, and some producers planted in the dry soil. It is stated that 25 kg of seeds are planted per decare, as the plantings are done dry because there is not enough rainfall in Tekirdağ.

 In Kocaeli, 110-130 kg of seeds are planted per acre in wheat and barley, and the rate of certified seed usage is 80%. Since there is little rainfall in Kırklareli, the amount of seeds used has increased and 110-120 kg of wheat seeds are planted per acre.

 It is stated that almost half of the canola-planted areas in Tekirdağ do not head due to insufficient rainfall, and barley and sunflower will be planted by the producers in a large part of the areas.

Since the headings in the canola-planted areas in Edirne are very low so far, the last headings will be observed after the rain and an evaluation will be made in the coming period regarding the shift between the products.

In general, 20 kg of bottom fertilizer is applied per decare in the region, and there has been no decrease in fertilizer use compared to previous years. It has been observed that some of the producers in Tekirdağ prefer microgranule, organomineral and 20.20.0 fertilizers as bottom fertilizers because they are more affordable. In Balıkesir, 10-15% shift is expected from sunflower, canola and poppy to wheat.

Black Sea Region: 10% of Turkey’s wheat planting

The region’s November precipitation is 38.1 mm, whereas the normal is 67.2 mm, and the November 2021 precipitation was 55.5 mm. There was a 43% decrease in precipitation compared to the normal, and a 31% compared to November 2021. Grain planting has been completed in Çorum, Çankırı, Kastamonu and Karabük. The plantings were generally done in the dry and the plantings were 50% completed.

 In November, there was almost no precipitation in Sinop and little precipitation in Amasya and Tokat. For this reason, cultivation continues especially in these provinces. Depending on the precipitation to be received in December, the planting will be completed. In early planted places, germination and heading are seen from place to place.

This year, producers around Samsun made good profits from wheat and barley, which led to a shift from sunflower planting to wheat and barley planting. In this context, it is predicted that there will be an increase of around 20% in wheat plantings.

Mediterranean Region: 9% of Turkey’s wheat planting

The region’s November precipitation is 64.9 mm, whereas the normal is 77.2 mm, and it was 59 mm in November 2021. It increased by 16% compared to normal and by 10% compared to November 2021. Plantings continue in Gaziantep and Hatay and are completed in Adana and Mersin. 20-30 kg of bottom fertilizer and 20-30 kg of seeds were planted per decare. Plant heading has started in early planting regions, and it is considered that plant heading and development will be good depending on the climatic conditions. It is stated that there is an increase in organic fertilization besides chemical fertilizers in Gaziantep. It is noteworthy that in İmamoğlu, Adana, producers tend to shift from oil sunflower to cereals. In Hatay, there is a shift from sunflower and cotton to wheat and barley, to some extent.

A shift from cotton and corn to grain is expected throughout the region. It is stated that due to the additional premium support, an increase in the grain is expected. It is estimated that there will be a 30% shift from cotton and 5% from corn to durum and bread wheat in Gaziantep.

 As a result of the evaluation of fallow lands in Antalya, an increase of 8% is expected in the areas cultivated for cereals, and an increase of 8-10% is expected in Burdur due to the shift from poppy and corn to cereals.

Eastern Anatolia Region: %9 of Turkey’s wheat planting

The region’s November precipitation is 47.4 mm, the normal is 49.8 mm, and the November 2021 precipitation is 34.3 mm. There was a 5% decrease in precipitation compared to normal, and an increase of 38% compared to November 2021 precipitation.

Planting in the area has been completed. Field plowing continues for summer plantings (products such as barley, oats). Germination started after the rains in the places where the planting has been completed. In local areas, some producers have planted crops without fertilizer. It is thought that there will be a 15 to 20% transition from forage crops to cereals in Erzurum. It is estimated that there will be an increase in summer wheat plantings. In particular, an increase is observed in the sales of certified wheat seeds. 

Aegean Region: 8% of Turkey’s wheat planting

The region’s precipitation in November is 54.2 mm, whereas the normal is 68.8 mm, and the November 2021 precipitation was 60.6 mm. There was a 21% decrease in precipitation compared to normal and 11% decrease compared to November 2021.

Planting continues in the region. Due to the high temperatures in İzmir, the very low rainfall, and the lack of pans in the fields, the planting started in early November and 50% of it was completed. It is stated that in the Tavas district of Denizli, late sowing is recommended by the District Agriculture and Forestry Directorate to protect against possible root diseases in the region and planting will continue until the end of December.

It is observed that the continental climate effect has increased in Denizli, and the increase in the temperature difference between day and night causes the grain to be stressed out. In Afyonkarahisar, sparse heads were observed after precipitation in dry plantings, but it is observed that they were insufficient. Heads are normal in wet and bottomlands. It was determined that the cultivation accelerated after the rains in mid-November.

With the distribution of granted certified seeds in Eskişehir and Denizli, it is predicted that both the certified seed usage level and the grain planting areas will increase. It is foreseen that in areas where water is scarce in Afyonkarahisar, plantations will shift to cereals and forage crops.

An increase of 10% compared to the previous year is expected in grain planting in Denizli, and this increase is estimated to be from the areas where oil sunflower planting areas and poppy cultivation are abandoned.