The USDA Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) in Ankara has significantly revised Turkey’s wheat production forecast downward due to persistent drought conditions, now estimating the 2025/26 crop at 16.25 million metric tons (MMT)—a sharp decline from the previous projection of 19 MMT. In its latest Grain and Feed Update report, released on July 3, the FAS Post stated: “Wheat production may decline further depending on the extent of the damage caused by drought.”

Turkey’s key wheat-growing regions—Central Anatolia and Southeastern Anatolia—faced a combination of below-average rainfall, warmer-than-normal winter temperatures, and an unexpected spring frost, all of which severely affected rain-fed fields. As the report notes: “Post forecasts a 15 to 30 percent decrease in yields for wheat grown in non-irrigated areas compared to the previous year.”

Although Turkish farmers expanded wheat sowing in the previous fall, bringing the estimated wheat planted area to 7.3 million hectares, this increase was not enough to compensate for weather-related losses.

WHEAT IMPORTS EXPECTED TO REACH 10.25 MMT

Due to the anticipated production shortfall, Turkey’s wheat imports for MY 2025/26 are forecast at 10.25 MMT, a steep rise from last year’s 3.2 MMT, when government restrictions had limited import volumes. The USDA report explains: “Most of this imported wheat will be used in wheat product exports such as flour and pasta.”

Turkey is expected to maintain its wheat product exports (wheat equivalent of flour, pasta, and bulgur) at 7 MMT. However, regaining lost market share may prove difficult. The report cautions: “Despite optimism from the wheat flour industry regarding a rebound in exports, a decrease in demand from Iraq—one of Turkey’s largest markets—may limit efforts to regain market share.”

It further adds: “Iraq continues investing in its own flour milling capacity, and Egyptian flour has become more competitive in African and Middle Eastern markets.”

STABLE DOMESTIC CONSUMPTION AND STOCK OUTLOOK

Wheat consumption in Turkey remains steady at 19.4 MMT, with food-use accounting for approximately 90% of total demand. The report states: “Consumption has been relatively stable in recent years, as population growth has slowed and consumers in the middle and upper classes are moving away from traditional bread consumption.”

Wheat ending stocks are projected at 3.4 MMT. The Turkish Grain Board (TMO) is expected to both sell domestically and support exports in an effort to balance stock levels.

BARLEY PRODUCTION FALLS BY 28%; IMPORTS ON THE RISE

Barley output is forecast at 5.1 MMT, down from 7 MMT in the previous season—representing a 28% year-on-year decrease. The decline is particularly pronounced in non-irrigated areas of Central and Southeastern Anatolia, where drought conditions were most severe.

TMO increased the procurement price for first-grade barley by 52%, raising it to 11,000 TL/ton. Nevertheless, domestic supply remains insufficient, and barley imports are projected to reach 1.6 MMT, while exports are expected to decline sharply to just 100,000 metric tons.

CORN PRODUCTION TO INCREASE, BUT IMPORT DEMAND PERSISTS

Thanks to irrigation infrastructure, corn has been less affected by drought conditions. Corn production is forecast to rise 12% to 7.9 MMT, driven by expanded planting and favorable growing conditions. However, strong demand from the feed industry is expected to keep imports elevated, with forecast volumes reaching 2.9 MMT.

RICE PRODUCTION FALLS DUE TO WATER RESTRICTIONS

Paddy rice production is projected to decrease 6.5% to 810,000 metric tons, primarily due to irrigation restrictions and water shortages in the Marmara region. To meet domestic demand, rice imports are expected to increase to 450,000 metric tons.