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Turkey’s wheat import ban leads to sharp decline in flour exports

13 January 20254 min reading

The wheat import ban, which began in Turkey in June of last year, has impacted the Turkish flour industry, which has held the title of world flour export leader for years. According to the latest TURKSTAT data, Turkey's flour exports in 2024 decreased by 20.9% in dollar terms, totaling $1.159 billion. In terms of volume, wheat flour exports dropped from 3.648 million tonnes in 2023 to 3.022 million tonnes in 2024, representing a 17.2% decline.

The total exports from Turkey’s grains, pulses, oilseeds, and related products sector—which includes staple food products such as wheat flour, pasta, vegetable oils, biscuits, and sugary and cocoa products—were announced at $11.9 billion in 2024. During this period, total grain exports reached 13.5 million tonnes, with average export prices per kilogram increasing by 3.5% to $0.88.

Due to the wheat import ban imposed during the June-October period, the share of wheat flour exports, which decreased by 20.9% to $1.159 billion, dropped to 9.7% of total grain exports. Sweet biscuit and wafer exports, which reached $973 million, ranked second in the sector, with a 9.1% increase. Iraq, where grain exports exceeded $2.1 billion, was the largest market for the sector, followed by the USA with $651.6 million and Syria with $517.5 million. Germany, which saw a 16.7% increase in grain exports this year, came just after Algeria in the fourth position.

‘We expect the wheat import ban to be eased in 2025’

Ahmet Tiryakioğlu

Ahmet Tiryakioğlu, Chairman of Turkish Exporters' Assembly (TIM) Cereals, Pulses, Oil Seeds and Products Sector Board, stated that one of the most significant developments affecting the total exports of the grain sector in the past year was the wheat import ban. Tiryakioğlu evaluated the year 2024 as follows:

“The year 2024 was one in which we experienced results below the high performance levels we are accustomed to. Our sector has grown from $1 billion in exports in 2002 to $12 billion over the years, increasing its share of Turkey's total exports from 2.7% to over 5%. The wheat import ban, strictly enforced during the summer months and relaxed with a 15% quota starting from October 15, has negatively affected our flour exports in terms of quantity. Wheat flour exports dropped from 3.648 million tonnes in 2023 to 3.022 million tonnes in 2024, representing a 17.2% decline. As a country capable of producing an average of 250 kg of wheat per capita and having been the global leader in wheat flour exports for the last 11 years, these restrictions have led to a decrease in global wheat prices. We have already presented our requests and needs to the Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry and expect the restrictions to be further eased in 2025. We believe that this year, our sector will break a new record, exceeding $12.5 billion in exports, with a 7% increase.”

‘End of the Russia-Ukraine war may positively affect our trade’

Tiryakioğlu emphasized that developments in the Black Sea region, which is a central hub for world grain production, are vital for Turkey's agricultural trade. He noted: “With the election of President Trump in the USA, we expect the Russia-Ukraine war to come to a close sooner, which could positively affect food trade due to a softening of diplomatic relations. These two countries, which together account for 24% of world grain exports, need our cooperation as a transit route to access foreign markets. Once the war ends, key ports such as Odessa, Mariupol, and Sevastopol in the Black Sea and Sea of Azov will become active again. As the trade of products in this region shifts back to these ports, the focus will once again turn to our country. Turkey’s increasing logistics investments and its central location for trade with the Middle East and Africa will make it a more prominent player in regional trade. Should EU and US sanctions against Russia begin to loosen due to the changing war conditions, we believe Turkey will be among the fastest to respond to demand in this region. Our bulgur promotion project in Russia, which began last year, continues, and we expect high returns on our communication investments in the future.”

According to TURKSTAT data, Turkish grain production decreased by 7.5% in 2024 compared to the previous year, totaling approximately 39 million tonnes. While wheat production fell by 5.5%, barley production decreased by 12%, and rye production dropped by 15.7%. “We anticipate that 2025 will see higher yields due to increased sowing areas and improved precipitation, and we expect to achieve the target of 22 million tonnes in wheat production that we missed in 2024” Tiryakioğlu said.

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