Few countries shape global wheat trade like Egypt. Still the world’s largest wheat importer — buying around 12–13 MMT annually — Egypt remains the ultimate benchmark for MENA grain trade, with every procurement reform in Cairo sending ripples through global markets. In this ASAP Agri special, Victoria Blazhko, Head of Editorial, Content, and Analytics, and Inna Stepanenko, Chief Analyst, explore how Egypt is overhauling its wheat procurement system — shifting from slow, state-run tenders to a more flexible, commercial model based on private and ad-hoc purchases. The result: a faster, more adaptive supply chain that blends state coordination with market dynamics, setting the tone for Egypt’s 2025/26 import season.

BREAKING THE TENDER HABIT: EGYPT’S NEW PROCUREMENT ERA

For decades, Egypt’s General Authority for Supply Commodities (GASC) formed the backbone of the country’s wheat imports. As a civilian arm of the Supply Ministry, it reliably purchased 4–5 MMT per year through transparent international tenders — a system praised by global traders for its clear rules and guaranteed payments. Yet this reliability came at a price: the tender mechanism was bureaucratic, slow, and often pushed up Egypt’s final wheat costs due to administrative fees and limited flexibility to seize short-term market opportunities.

That changed in late 2024, when the government created Mostakbal Misr (“Future of Egypt”), a new, military-linked agency empowered to both hold tenders and sign direct, private contracts. Its mandate was clear — to act more like a commercial trader, cutting red tape and buying wheat at market speed.

In practice, Mostakbal Misr rapidly moved away from public tenders toward ad-hoc purchases negotiated on short notice, often with deferred payment terms of up to several months. At first, global exporters were cautious, unsure about the agency’s procedures and financial reliability, forcing Egypt to rely on local intermediaries to bridge early deals.

Confidence began to build in April 2025, when Mostakbal Misr finalized its first direct international purchase — 180 KMT of French wheat. The deal marked a turning point: global suppliers were beginning to recognize the new buyer as a serious counterparty. In the past two months, the agency booked over 1 MMT of wheat, primarily from Russia, but also from Romania, France, Bulgaria, Ukraine, and Kazakhstan — proving that Egypt’s transition from tenders to flexible private buying was no longer an experiment, but a new operating reality. 

But time has shown that early market concerns were not unfounded. Egypt’s evolving procurement model has made buying faster and more flexible — yet that very pace has exposed vulnerabilities in financing and payment execution, testing market confidence.

“At the beginning of October, we saw Egyptian demand vanish for at least a week — it was clear something was wrong,” said Christina Serebriakova, Broker at Atria Brokers and CEO at ASAP Agri. “We discovered that Egypt was facing problems with opening letters of credit. As a result, up to 15 vessels were left afloat, which put pressure on Egyptian wheat prices in October. Currently, about eight vessels — roughly 200 KMT — remain unpaid and awaiting resolution. But we expect these issues to be cleared by the end of October, after which Egypt should return to the market with fresh demand at more logical price levels.”

The delays mainly affected Russian and Ukrainian cargoes, underscoring the fragility of Egypt’s evolving financing system. Still, when operations run smoothly, Mostakbal Misr has proven capable — as seen in the timely deliveries of French and Kazakh wheat, which highlight the model’s potential once financing and logistics align.

Parallel to the overhaul of state purchasing, Egypt’s private importers have sharply expanded their role in securing wheat. Over the past three years, private trading and milling companies have steadily increased their market share — a shift driven by the rapid growth of Egypt’s commercial flour industry and rising flour exports to regional markets. By 2025, they were handling around three-quarters of Egypt’s wheat imports, the highest share in two decades. These private mills and traders, supplying both domestic and export-oriented demand, have leveraged their agility to capitalize on price dips, act swiftly on spot offers, and fill supply gaps whenever state purchases slowed.

FROM DEPENDENCE TO DIVERSIFICATION

For years, Egypt — the world’s largest wheat importer — depended almost entirely on the Black Sea. Before 2022, most of its wheat came from Russia and Ukraine, drawn by low freight costs and short delivery times. That comfortable reliance ended abruptly when the Russia–Ukraine war disrupted trade, drove global prices to record highs, and exposed the risk of depending on a single region.

The war froze Ukrainian exports, complicated Russian logistics, and sent global wheat prices soaring — just as Egypt’s economy weakened. The pound lost half its value, inflation spiked above 35%, and the cost of bread subsidies ballooned by over 40%. Egypt’s government learned a hard lesson: wheat security could no longer depend on two suppliers or one currency.

To reduce that risk, Cairo began sourcing wheat from a wider range of origins — Europe, Central Asia, and even India — while experimenting with direct government deals, deferred payments, and non-dollar settlements. In 2023–2024, Egypt bought French and Romanian wheat when Russian prices rose due to an informal export floor, then privately negotiated cheaper Russian cargoes outside the tender system. It also signed Gulf-backed supply and financing deals — such as a 500 MLN USD agreement with UAE’s Al Dahra — to secure stable, credit-based wheat deliveries.

These shifts were not just about origin but also about financing. With dollars scarce, Egypt turned to loans and credit lines from the ITFC and World Bank, and began settling some trade in rubles and Egyptian pounds. Such arrangements kept wheat flowing when hard currency was short, and underscored that diversification meant financial as well as geographical flexibility.

Behind all this lies Egypt’s core priority: food security. Bread is political — subsidized for more than 70 million citizens — and any supply shock risks unrest. Alongside imports, the government has also stepped up domestic procurement. During the 2025 harvest, it purchased almost 4 MMT of local wheat as of mid-August 2025, a sharp increase from 3.43 MMT in 2024. Yet, with national consumption exceeding 20 MMT, imports remain indispensable. Diversifying suppliers, therefore, gives Cairo both bargaining power and a safety net — ensuring that the country’s most basic staple stays within reach, even amid global uncertainty.

By 2025, the results were visible: Egypt had wheat secured well into mid-2025, sourced from multiple countries and financed through multiple channels. This diversification has strengthened Egypt’s hand: it now balances suppliers against each other to obtain better prices, secures wheat along multiple trade routes to ensure availability, and spreads financial risk by leveraging international support.

But the story doesn’t stop there. The new procurement reality has redrawn Egypt’s wheat map — stretching far beyond the familiar Black Sea. As the 2025/26 season approaches, Cairo is charting new routes to Europe, and even Central Asia, weaving a broader web of partners that promise both stability and choice.

EGYPT HITS THE BRAKES ON WHEAT IMPORTS

According to Ahmed Elsebaie, General Manager at Egyptian Swiss Group — one of Egypt’s leading exporters of flour and pasta — in the opening quarter of 2025/26, Egypt’s wheat imports slowed to 3.7 MMT, compared with 4.2 MMT in the same period last season. With local stocks replenished, Cairo is deliberately holding back, waiting for more competitive offers from its key Black Sea suppliers before returning to the market in force.

So far this season, Egypt’s wheat import structure has shifted visibly. Russia remains the top supplier, but its share has dropped to 50% in July–September 2025/26, compared with 65% a year ago. Meanwhile, Ukraine’s share jumped from 11% to 38%, reflecting its stronger return to the market.

European suppliers have played a smaller role: Romania’s share fell to 5% (from 14%), while Bulgaria has not shipped any wheat so far. In contrast, France has modestly expanded its footprint — from 3% to 5% — and looks set to continue increasing its presence as the season advances.

OLD PLAYERS AND NEW ORIGINS ON THE MAP

Russia — the dominant but challenged supplier

Russia remains Egypt’s main wheat supplier, dominating both state and private-sector imports thanks to its vast exportable surplus, competitive prices, proximity, and long-standing trade ties.

In 2024/25, Egypt imported 8.2 MMT of Russian wheat. This season, however, shipments have slowed: 1.8 MMT were imported in July–September 2025/26, compared with 2.7 MMT in the same period a year earlier, according to Ahmed Elsebaie.

The decline reflects several factors — a delayed harvest, smaller output in port-adjacent regions, and prolonged export declaration procedures that lengthened delivery times during Russia’s traditional export peak. Lower shipments to Egypt also align with Cairo’s diversification drive, as buyers increasingly turn to Ukrainian, European, and new alternative suppliers.

Still, Russian wheat exports are expected to pick up from October onward, as more new-crop volumes reach ports. With Egypt’s demand likely to strengthen alongside a firmer pound, Russia’s market share may rebound in the coming months.

Ukraine — holding ground in Russia’s shadow

Ukraine’s performance on the Egyptian market has been notably strong so far in 2025/26. Between July and September, Egypt imported 1.4 MMT of Ukrainian wheat, up sharply from just 450 KMT a year earlier, according to Ahmed Elsebaie.

Although Ukraine’s harvest was also delayed — slowing early-season shipments — its export geography has shifted, redirecting more wheat toward Egypt despite lower total exports. The main driver has been the return of EU import quotas on Ukrainian wheat, which sharply limited access to its largest market. Facing tougher competition in Asia and ample global supply, Ukrainian exporters turned to Egypt as a key alternative outlet for volumes previously bound for the EU.

At the same time, Russia’s sluggish early-season exports created a brief window for Ukraine to expand its foothold in Egypt. Still, competition remains fierce: Russian 12.5% wheat continues to trade close to Ukrainian 11.5% offers, keeping margins tight. As Russian shipments accelerate later in the season, pressure on Ukrainian wheat in Egypt is expected to intensify.

European origins — France gains, Romania retreats

French wheat is regaining ground in the Egyptian market, slowly reclaiming a share lost in recent years to Black Sea suppliers. In the first quarter of 2025/26, France shipped 195 KMT of wheat to Egypt — up from less than 120 KMT in the same period of 2024/25.

This rebound reflects a stronger French harvest following last year’s rain-affected crop, with better grain quality and improved price competitiveness versus Black Sea origins, whose offers have remained relatively firm. Russia’s slow export pace early in the season also opened a window for France to re-enter the Egyptian market.

Although France still trails far behind Russia and Ukraine in total volumes, traders expect further growth ahead — especially after Mostakbal Misr’s October purchase of two French cargoes, signaling the state buyer’s growing openness to EU suppliers. 

By contrast, Romania has sharply reduced shipments, delivering just 180 KMT to Egypt versus 576 KMT a year earlier. Despite a solid harvest and strong total exports this season, Romania’s trade flows have shifted toward the Middle East, with Saudi Arabia and Jordan emerging as key buyers, while Egypt — last season’s core destination — has slipped down the list. 

Kazakhstan: one-off deal or signal of a broader diversification trend?

Egypt continues to broaden its supplier base, looking beyond traditional partners. In a notable move, Mostakbal Misr purchased two cargoes of Kazakh wheat in September — the first such deal in more than fifteen years. About 32 KMT arrived at Egyptian ports in mid-September, coinciding with a Mostakbal Misr delegation’s visit to Kazakhstan to strengthen trade ties and evaluate future supply potential.

Whether this marks a symbolic one-off purchase or the beginning of deeper cooperation remains to be seen. Still, the deal underscores Egypt’s growing willingness to test new origins — and its determination to build greater resilience across its global wheat supply network.

Egypt’s wheat story is far from finished. As the 2025/26 season unfolds, every shipment, tender, and trade decision reveals how the world’s largest importer is rewriting the rules of supply — replacing old certainties with new connections that now stretch across the Black Sea and beyond.

*The next chapter will unfold on stage at Global Grain Geneva 2025 on 12 November, where ASAP Agri will bring together leading industry voices — among them Ahmed Elsebaie, General Manager at Egyptian Swiss Group — for its high-profile panel, “From Wheat to Feed: Black Sea Tender 2025/26.”

The session, moderated by Christina Serebriakova, CEO at ASAP Agri and Broker at Atria Brokers, promises both perspective and pulse on Egypt’s evolving procurement model and the shifting balance within the wider Black Sea grain trade.