Türkiye’s flour exports fell to 2.36 million metric tons in 2025, but a sharp rise in shipments to Syria helped cushion the downturn after Iraq’s purchases contracted steeply, the head of IAOM Eurasia said.

Eren Günhan Ulusoy, chairman of the IAOM Eurasia, told that the industry was hit by domestic supply pressures linked to drought and frost damage, while trade conditions tightened early in the year following an import ban that weighed on export momentum. Ulusoy said Türkiye ended 2025 with 2,360,000 tons of flour exports—back near 2019 levels—after several years in which overseas shipments had remained above 3 million tons. The slowdown began at the start of 2025 and persisted through the season as lower yields and market uncertainty reinforced the decline, he added.

2026 STARTS SOFT; ANNUAL TARGET SET AT 2.4–2.7 MLN TONS

Eren Günhan Ulusoy
Chairman of the IAOM Eurasia

Türkiye exported 181,000 tons of flour in January 2026, Ulusoy said, about 17% below the same month a year earlier. He said the figure disappointed against expectations after exports had shown a late-2025 rebound, reaching about 230,000 tons in November, but then eased again in January. Monthly performance is shaped by overseas demand conditions, logistics and seasonality, Ulusoy said.

For 2026, the industry is aiming to restore a monthly export pace of at least 200,000 tons, targeting a minimum of 2.4 million tons for the year and an upper bound of 2.7 million tons, he said. Production outcomes and global market developments will be key variables, while domestic demand is expected to remain resilient given Türkiye’s consumption base, he added.

IRAQ DROPS; SYRIA BECOMES TOP DESTINATION AFTER TWO DECADES

Ulusoy said Iraq—long one of Türkiye’s biggest flour markets—saw imports fall sharply. Exports to Iraq slipped to around 360,000 tons in 2025 from 920,000 tons in 2024, he said. By contrast, flour exports to Syria more than doubled, rising to about 650,000 tons in 2025 from 310,000 tons a year earlier. Ulusoy said monthly shipments accelerated from 20,000–30,000 tons to 60,000–70,000 tons, making Syria the market with the strongest growth and turning it into Türkiye’s largest flour export destination—replacing Iraq for the first time in 20 years.

Türkiye has built deep supply chains into Iraq over time—particularly through producers in the country’s southeast—Ulusoy said, adding that exporters in border regions have also become key suppliers into Syria’s food supply chain.

He said Iraq’s shift reflected a longer-term trend: as political stability strengthened, Iraq expanded its own milling industry and introduced restrictions on flour imports. Syria has not yet developed comparable domestic capacity, he said, but warned that a similar transition could occur over time—arguing that Turkish companies should position themselves to participate in investment and production opportunities in Syria.

Ulusoy said exports to Syria totalled 52,000 tons in January 2026 and are expected to at least match last year’s level over 2026, with an increase of at least 20% versus 2025 likely during the summer season.

EU–INDIA TRADE TALKS SEEN AS LIMITED RISK FOR FLOUR

On an EU–India free trade agreement, Ulusoy said he does not see India as a near-term threat to Türkiye’s flour exports. India has not consistently remained self-sufficient in wheat and has alternated between importing and exporting, he said, adding that New Delhi has imposed bans and restrictions on flour exports over the past three years.

Ulusoy said wheat and flour were excluded from the agreement’s sub-sections, and he expects both sides to continue shielding agriculture through tariff tools. India’s main competitive edge against Türkiye would be in some Asian destinations such as Sri Lanka due to geographic proximity, he added.

DIGITAL TOOLS, AUTONOMY RESHAPING FARM LABOUR DYNAMICS

Ulusoy said climate remains the biggest uncertainty for agriculture, but noted that nearly half of Türkiye’s 78 million hectares is suitable for farming, representing significant potential. He said mechanisation is moving towards autonomy and digitalisation, a shift that could reduce reliance on labour over the long term.

He described farming as an “open-air factory” where production cannot be fully controlled, but said satellite-based tools can now track field moisture and vegetation development with high precision. Adoption is not yet widespread, he added, but larger-scale farms are increasingly able to integrate these technologies into operations.

WHEAT OUTLOOK IMPROVES ON STRONGER RAINFALL

For the 2025 season, rainfall was about 37% below seasonal norms, Ulusoy said, weighing on crops and leaving wheat output at 17.9 million tons, maize output of 8.5 million tons and a drop in barley production to 6 million tons from 8 million.

Looking to 2026, he said January was rainy and the pattern continued into early February, lifting soil moisture at least 30% above last year. On that basis, he said wheat production is expected at a minimum of 20 million tons and could approach 21–22 million if rainfall continues.

Ulusoy also highlighted Türkiye’s licensed warehousing system as a key shock absorber. He said the Turkish Grain Board (TMO) stabilised the 2025/26 market by releasing carry-over stocks from the prior season, preventing production losses from becoming a supply gap. With licensed storage capacity above 14 million tons, Türkiye has improved its ability to manage imbalances between seasons, he said.