Syria’s 2025 wheat harvest has collapsed to under one million tonnes, the lowest in decades, leaving a deficit of 2.7 million tonnes against national demand. Despite the first Western grain shipment after U.S. sanctions relief, limited imports, payment hurdles, and a record drought are pushing millions deeper into food insecurity.
Syria is entering one of the gravest food security crises in its modern history, as a combination of prolonged drought, economic fragility, and shifting geopolitical dynamics erodes the country’s wheat supply chain.
The 2025/26 season has been the driest in nearly four decades, according to the UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO). Rainfall deficits of up to 69% have devastated more than 75% of rain-fed farmland, while irrigated areas have suffered severe shortages, damaged networks, and frequent power cuts. As a result, wheat output for 2025 is projected at just 900,000 to 1.1 million tonnes, far below the national requirement of nearly 4 million tonnes. This leaves a supply gap of 2.7 million tonnes, threatening access to bread – the staple of the Syrian diet – for more than 16 million people.
IMPORT NEEDS RISE, BUT FINANCIAL HURDLES PERSIST
Before the war, Syria produced up to 4 million tonnes of wheat in good years, exporting around one million. Today, output has plunged by around 40% compared to last year. Reuters reported that Damascus has purchased only 373,500 tonnes from local farmers this season, about half of last year’s volume. The government now needs to import around 2.55 million tonnes, but so far has secured just limited supplies. Russia, once Syria’s main supplier, has suspended large-scale shipments since December due to payment delays and uncertainty following the ouster of Bashar al-Assad.
FIRST WESTERN GRAIN CARGO ARRIVES IN SYRIA
In late August, the MJ Sofia vessel delivered 19,000 tonnes of Romanian barley to Tartus port – the first Western grain cargo to reach Syria after the United States lifted broad sanctions earlier this year, The Syrian Observer reported.
Although food was not formally restricted under past sanctions, banking barriers had long discouraged international traders from dealing with Damascus. Analysts say the U.S. policy shift could open the door for broader grain trade.
The UN World Food Programme told Reuters that three million Syrians could face severe hunger in the coming months, while more than half of the country’s 25.6 million people are already food insecure.