Sub-Saharan Africa is set to surpass Southeast Asia as the world's largest rice-importing region in 2025, according to USDA's April World Grain Markets and Trade report. The region's rice imports are forecast to reach 18.6 million tons, while Southeast Asia’s imports are projected at 12 million tons this season. This shift highlights the growing importance of in global rice trade, driven by record-high global production and more competitive prices.
Rice consumption in the Sub-Saharan Africa region has seen significant growth over the past 15 years, driven by factors such as population growth, urbanization, and dietary shifts toward rice as a staple food. This rising demand is outpacing domestic production, and while some countries in Sub-Saharan Africa have made progress in increasing local production, imports remain a critical source of supply.
India has traditionally been the largest supplier to the region, offering both milled white rice and parboiled rice at competitive prices. However, in 2023, the region saw a dip in imports due to rising global prices caused by India's temporary ban on white and broken rice exports and its tax on parboiled rice. In 2024, as Sub-Saharan African importers turned to alternative suppliers such as Thailand and Pakistan, India lifted most of its export restrictions in October 2024. This move allowed India to regain significant market share, as buyers responded to more attractive prices by sharply increasing imports in the final quarter of 2024.
Looking ahead to 2025, rice imports to Sub-Saharan Africa are expected to climb further, driven by slightly reduced regional production and the continued attractiveness of low-priced rice. The anticipated import surge in the region is a reflection of broader trends in global rice trade, where global consumption is also expected to hit a record of 528.6 million tons, with Sub-Saharan Africa being a key driver of this growth.
The forecasted rice import volumes for some key countries in 2025 are as follows:
Nigeria: 2.8 million tons
Ivory Coast: 1.8 million tons
Saudi Arabia: 1.85 million tons
Senegal: 1.5 million tons
Kenya: 675,000 tons