Despite strong harvests, global grain markets are under pressure as logistics and weak demand weigh heavily, warned Indrek Aigro, Head of Brokerage at Copenhagen Merchants, speaking at the IAOM Eurasia Conference & Expo 2025 in Istanbul.
Indrek Aigro
Speaking at the “The Global Flow of Commodities” session, Indrek Aigro outlined the shifting dynamics of global grain trade. His central message: while production remains strong, trade flows and pricing structures are being transformed by logistics, farmer behavior, and geopolitical changes.
Over the last five years — particularly since the Covid-19 pandemic — the global grain trade has seen a decisive move from FOB (free on board) to CFR (cost and freight) terms. Exporters are now assuming control of logistics, delivering directly to buyers. Governments have accelerated this shift, with Russia in particular pushing its exporters to take responsibility for freight — a role once dominated by multinational ABCD companies.
A BEAR MARKET REALITY
Grain prices have nearly halved since their May 2022 peak, placing the market firmly in a structural bear phase. Buyers have shifted to hand-to-mouth purchasing, spreading sales more evenly throughout the season rather than concentrating them at harvest.
Margins have also changed hands. Farmers, once price takers, are now stronger market participants. Investments in storage facilities and financial independence have allowed them to hold grain and sell only when conditions are favorable. “Farmer behavior has changed dramatically compared to a decade ago,” Aigro noted.
RUSSIA: SURPLUS VS. LOGISTICS
Russia’s wheat market reflects this paradox. Last year, Russian wheat was discounted by $30–50 per ton compared to other origins, a level Aigro described as “Russians competing with themselves.” This year, heavy discounting has disappeared.
Yet logistical bottlenecks loom large. Much of Russia’s exportable surplus of 43–44 MMT is located 3,000–4,000 km from ports, straining an already challenged railway system. While shipments currently lag the five-year average, Aigro expects exports to accelerate from October onward, reaching 3–4 MMT per month. If that pace is maintained, Russia could still end the season as a record exporter with around 50 MMT shipped.
BLACK SEA EXPORTERS GAIN MARKET SHARE
Aigro emphasized the growing dominance of the Black Sea region. In Algeria, India, and Nigeria, Russia and neighboring suppliers now command 50–70% of wheat import markets, steadily displacing traditional exporters. “The Black Sea is increasingly setting the pace of global grain flows,” he observed.
EGYPT: THE ELEPHANT IN THE ROOM
The final uncertainty lies with Egypt. Once the world’s benchmark buyer through transparent GASC tenders, Egypt’s purchasing has become opaque since President Sisi’s December 2023 decree shifting procurement authority. Buying activity has slowed sharply in recent months. Aigro warned this implies that stockpiling will eventually be necessary: “When Egypt re-enters the market in force, it could have a decisive impact on global prices and trade flows.”
TAKEAWAYS
- Logistics, not harvest size, may be Russia’s biggest challenge.
- Farmers have emerged as more powerful players thanks to storage and financial independence.
- Black Sea exporters are steadily reshaping global market shares.
- Egypt’s re-entry to heavy buying could be the next turning point for wheat markets.