SovEcon has raised its 2025 Russian wheat crop forecast by 1.9 million tonnes to 85.2 million tonnes, driven by larger planted areas and improving yields in the Central and Southern regions.

SovEcon, a leading Black Sea grain consultancy, has raised its forecast for Russia’s 2025 wheat crop by 1.9 million tonnes to 85.2 million tonnes, following the release of updated planted area data from Rosstat.

On Monday, Rosstat reported Russia’s total wheat area at 26.9 million hectares, compared with SovEcon’s earlier estimate of 26.6 million hectares. The Central region forecast was increased by 1.2 million tonnes to 21.5 million tonnes, reflecting both the larger area and improving yields. The Southern region estimate was raised by 0.9 million tonnes to 31.1 million tonnes, also driven by higher acreage.

“Higher acreage and excellent yields in parts of the Central region have lifted our forecast. The outlook for the crop in the Volga Valley and Siberia remains promising as well,” said Andrey Sizov, head of SovEcon. “While the improving Russian wheat crop outlook is a bearish factor for the global market, it’s important to remember that the South — the No. 1 growing and exporting region — is harvesting a historically low crop this year, which came as a surprise to many.”