SovEcon, a leading Black Sea grain consultancy, has cut its 2025/26 Russian wheat export forecast by 0.6 million tonnes to 46.8 million tonnes, while raising its 2026/27 forecast by 1.1 million tonnes to 46.3 million tonnes.

The downgrade for the current season reflects slower shipments in recent weeks after heavy buying in March. Egypt, the world’s largest wheat importer, is the clearest example, with demand expected to remain weak until late summer.

Another risk factor is Turkey. SovEcon said Turkey “could suspend wheat imports for several months” amid expectations of a very strong domestic crop, estimated at 22–23 million tonnes or potentially higher. A stronger ruble is also weighing on Russian export competitiveness, with USDRUB falling to around 71 in May, almost 20% below its March peak.

SovEcon also raised its 2026/27 Russian wheat export forecast by 1.1 million tonnes to 46.3 million tonnes, citing expectations of larger carry-in stocks and a bigger crop.

Corn export forecasts stand at 4.3 million tonnes for 2025/26 and 3.6 million tonnes for 2026/27. Total grain exports are now estimated at 58.0 million tonnes in the current season and 55.7 million tonnes in 2026/27.

Andrey Sizov, head of SovEcon, said: “Near-term export conditions have become less favorable as buyer interest cools and the ruble strengthens. This slowdown should leave Russia with larger carry-in stocks, improving export potential for 2026/27. Ample Russian supply and unusually high Ukrainian carry-in stocks are likely to be major bearish factors for the new season.”