SovEcon, a leading Black Sea grain consultancy, has maintained its forecast for Russia’s 2025 wheat production at 78.7 million metric tons (MMT), down from 82.4 MMT last year. While the ongoing anomalously warm weather has not yet caused significant damage to winter crops, SovEcon warns that associated risks remain elevated.

Unusually warm weather has caused the snow cover, which accumulated late last year, to thin in Russia’s central regions and disappear entirely in the South. In contrast, snow cover remains relatively high in the Volga region.

Soil temperatures in the Center and South have significantly exceeded seasonal norms, triggering early vegetation in winter crops. Frosts during the vegetation period or in the absence of sufficient snow cover pose a heightened risk of winterkill. Additionally, melting snow in the Center has led to the formation of ice crust in some regions. Ice crusting has been a recurring issue in recent years, causing considerable losses in winter crop area.

CROP CONDITIONS AND POTENTIAL IMPACT

Winter crops entered the season in significantly worse-than-average condition. According to SovEcon’s analysis, based on data from Roshydromet (RHM), 37% of Russian winter grain was in poor condition as of November, the highest percentage on record.

Although no extreme cold temperatures are forecast in the short term, the current weather setup, combined with the extremely poor condition of crops at the start of winter, means any significant cold snap could result in substantial winterkill.