Better yields in Siberia prompted SovEcon to raise its 2025 Russia wheat estimate by 0.2 MMT to 88.8 MMT and barley by 0.1 MMT to 19.4 MMT, with total grain production now seen at 136.2 MMT.

SovEcon, a leading consultancy specializing in Black Sea grain markets, has raised its 2025 Russian wheat production forecast by 0.2 million metric tons (MMT) to 88.8 MMT, citing stronger-than-expected yields in Siberia. The barley crop estimate was increased by 0.1 MMT to 19.4 MMT, while the corn forecast remains unchanged at 12.7 MMT. Total grain production is now estimated at 136.2 MMT, up 0.8 MMT from last month.

The upward revision to the wheat forecast is driven primarily by Siberia (+0.2 MMT), where yields exceeded expectations. Despite adverse weather earlier in the season, the harvested area ultimately approached average levels. The barley estimate was revised higher on yield improvements in both Siberia and the Urals. Rosstat typically releases its first official crop results in the last week of the year.

SOVECON HOLDS 2026 WHEAT FORECAST AT 83.8 MMT

SovEcon left its 2026 wheat crop forecast unchanged at 83.8 MMT, 5 MMT below the 2025 estimate. So far, no material weather risks are evident, and the winter wheat area is in line with our expectations.

The pre-harvest wheat area for 2026 is estimated at 26.3 million hectares, down from 26.9 million hectares this season. Average yields are expected to be slightly above normal. Under SovEcon’s scenarios, wheat output could range from 79.8 MMT (pessimistic) to 87.9 MMT (optimistic).