SovEcon, a leading Black Sea grain consultancy, has raised its forecast for Russia’s 2025 wheat production to 79.7 million metric tons (MMT), up 1.1 MMT from the previous estimate. The revision reflects better-than-expected winter crop survival.

The winter wheat production forecast has been increased to 52.2 MMT from 50.7 MMT, driven by higher yield expectations and reduced winterkill. In contrast, the spring wheat forecast has been slightly reduced to 27.5 MMT, down from 27.9 MMT, due to a projected smaller planted area.

“Plants have weathered the winter well, and their condition has improved,” SovEcon analysts noted. According to Roshydromet, just 5% of winter wheat crops were in poor condition as of March—an improvement from a record 37.1% in November.

SovEcon noted that crop conditions usually improve over the winter, with the most pronounced gains seen in seasons that start with abnormally poor field conditions, such as 2015 and 2021.

Despite the improved outlook, SovEcon remains cautious. Andrey Sizov, CEO of SovEcon, commented: “Although recent weather has been favorable, overall crop conditions remain below average, and soil moisture deficits persist in many regions. Forecasts for the coming weeks suggest dry and abnormally warm weather, limiting the potential for further improvement.”

Even with the upward revision, the 2025 wheat crop is still expected to be the smallest since 2021, when Russia harvested 76.0 MMT. In 2024 Russia produced 82.6 MMT.