SovEcon, a leading Black Sea grain consultancy, has raised its forecast for Russian wheat exports in the 2025/26 season by 0.4 million metric tons (MMT) to 44.6 MMT, citing a strong shipment pace and improving export margins.

Russian wheat exports have been exceptionally strong in recent months. December shipments are estimated at 4.2 MMT, close to the monthly record of 4.3 MMT, while November exports reached 5.1 MMT, well above the previous November record of 4.3 MMT.

Importer demand remains elevated. Buyers that had delayed purchases in hopes of lower prices have returned to the market, pushing shipments to historically high levels for this period.

Export margins have also improved. Domestic prices continue to ease, while export prices have held near $230/mt FOB, allowing margins to turn from negative to slightly positive.

Andrey Sizov, head of SovEcon, said: “Russia’s export campaign started slowly this season but has accelerated to near-record levels. We do not rule out further upward revisions to the export forecast, though slow farmer selling and a strong ruble remain key headwinds.”

SovEcon also raised its barley export forecast by 0.2 MMT to 3.8 MMT and lifted the corn export estimate by 0.1 MMT to 2.5 MMT. Total Russian grain exports are now projected at 52.9 MMT, up 0.3 MMT from the November estimate, reflecting faster shipment pace across major grains.

In December, the U.S. Department of Agriculture left its forecast for Russian wheat exports unchanged at 44.0 MMT. USDA barley and corn export estimates also remained unchanged at 3.5 MMT and 3.0 MMT, respectively.