SovEcon, a leading Black Sea grain consultancy, has raised its 2025 Russian wheat production forecast to 83.0 million metric tons (MMT), up from 82.8 MMT in early June. The revision reflects improved crop conditions in parts of Central Russia, especially in the eastern areas and Voronezh.

The improved outlook for the Central region was partly offset by lower forecasts for Siberia and the Urals, where spring wheat area is expected to fall sharply. SovEcon cut its estimate for total spring wheat area from 12.7 million hectares to 11.8 million hectares, which would be the lowest in decades. Total wheat area is now estimated at 26.9 million hectares, down 0.9 million hectares from earlier estimates.

The total grain crop forecast has also been raised to 129.5 MMT, up from 127.6 MMT in May. The barley crop is now estimated at 17.6 MMT (up from 17.4 MMT), while the corn forecast was reduced to 14.3 MMT (down from 14.6 MMT) due to a smaller planted area.