SovEcon, a leading Black Sea grain consultancy, has released its initial forecast for Russian wheat exports in the 2025/26 season, projecting a sharp decline to 36.4 million metric tons (MMT) from 43.7 MMT in the current season. 

This reduction is attributed to lower carry-in stocks and a projected decrease in wheat production, partially offset by reduced domestic feed wheat consumption, which surged this season due to poor barley and corn harvests.

2024/25 EXPORT FORECASTS ADJUSTED

For the current season, the 2024/25 wheat export forecast has been revised downward to 43.7 MMT, from 44.1 MMT, reflecting a sluggish shipment pace and declining exporter margins. The government has implemented a 10.6 MMT wheat export quota for the February-June period, slightly reduced from the initially approved 11.0 MMT. During this period, exports of barley and corn will be prohibited. The quota volume aligns closely with SovEcon’s earlier expectations.

Andrey Sizov
CEO of SovEcon

Other grain export forecasts for 2024/25 include:

• Corn exports: Reduced to 2.2 MMT, down from 2.4 MMT last month.

• Barley exports: Revised upward to 2.8 MMT, up from 2.6 MMT.

• Total grain, pulse, and processed product exports: Estimated at 51.6 MMT, down from 52.0 MMT previously.

Andrey Sizov, CEO of SovEcon, commented: “The global 2024/25 wheat supply and demand balance remains tight, while wheat is globally undervalued. We expect to see higher prices in the coming months. The market could be supported by anticipated reductions in the USDA’s Russian export forecast, which currently stands at an optimistic 47.0 MMT. A decline in Russian exports could be partially offset by higher estimates for Argentina and, more importantly, the United States.”