SovEcon, a leading Black Sea grain consultancy, has released its first estimate for Russia's 2025 wheat crop, forecasting production at 80.1 million metric tons (MMT). This marks a decline from 81.5 MMT in 2024 and is significantly below the 5-year average of 88.1 MMT.
The total wheat area is expected to decline to 28.4 million hectares from 28.5 million hectares in 2024, with the average yield projected to drop to 2.82 metric tons per hectare (mt/ha) from 2.86 mt/ha. Farmers are expected to reduce the winter wheat area due to ongoing dry conditions and slow planting progress. The average yield is expected to decline due to lower winter wheat yields amid challenging weather conditions.
The 2025 winter wheat yield is projected at 3.43 mt/ha, the lowest since 2019 (3.41 mt/ha), driven by a severe lack of precipitation. While some regions may benefit from recent rains, overall, winter wheat is expected to enter the cold season in poor condition. Topsoil moisture reserves are at their lowest levels in decades across many parts of the country.
The pre-harvest winter wheat area is forecast to shrink by 0.7 million hectares to 15.4 million hectares, with the largest reductions expected in the Central and Volga Valley regions.
Spring wheat yield is projected at 2.1 mt/ha, with an area increase of 0.6 million hectares, bringing the total to 13.0 million hectares. This increase will partially offset the decline in winter wheat area, but the overall wheat area is still expected to be lower than in 2024.
The poor condition of winter wheat raises concerns about an increased risk of winter kill. In addition, deteriorating financial conditions for farmers could further impact the new crop, as many will likely need to cut costs substantially.