SovEcon, a leading Black Sea grain consultancy, has revised its 2024/25 Russian wheat export forecast down to 40.7 million metric tons (MMT), from 42.2 MMT previously. The cut reflects the continued sluggish pace of shipments amid weak export margins.

At the same time, barley and corn export forecasts have been raised. Barley exports are now projected at 3.5 MMT (up from 3.3 MMT), and corn at 2.8 MMT (up from 2.6 MMT). As a result, total exports of grains, pulses, and processed products are now estimated at 49.9 MMT, compared to 51.0 MMT in the previous outlook.

Total Russian wheat exports from July through February amounted to 32.6 MMT, down from 33.8 MMT the previous year. February wheat exports stood at 1.9 MMT, compared to 2.3 MMT a year earlier and well below the five-year average of 4.1 MMT.

Export volumes continue to be constrained by poor profitability. Exporters’ margins have been mostly negative since late 2024, compared to $5–10 per ton in the fall.

The rapid strengthening of the ruble has further complicated export activity. Although export taxes are adjusted to currency movements, a time lag in this mechanism continues to put traders at a disadvantage.

Despite recent headwinds, SovEcon expects a gradual recovery in export activity due to improving market conditions, including rising export prices, renewed interest from importers, and a potential weakening of the ruble.

SovEcon has raised its 2025/26 Russian wheat export forecast to 39.1 MMT, up from 38.9 MMT, reflecting higher beginning stocks carried over from the current season.

Mention: SovEcon

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