SovEcon, a leading Black Sea grain consultancy, has raised its forecast for Russia’s 2025 wheat harvest to 87.2 million metric tons (MMT), up from 86.1 MMT in early September.

The revision reflects stronger-than-expected yields in Siberia and the Urals, where crops are approaching record levels. SovEcon raised its forecast for Siberia by 1.1 MMT to 9.7 MMT and for the Urals by 0.3 MMT to 4.1 MMT.

By contrast, the Central region estimate was lowered by 0.3 MMT to 21.3 MMT, as yields fell toward the end of harvest, likely due to rain-related delays.

Andrey Sizov, head of SovEcon, said: “The steady upgrades to Russia’s crop outlook in recent weeks are one of the major bearish stories for the global wheat market. Still, much of this improvement is in the Asian part of the country, where moving wheat to ports is costly and slow — more than 2,000 km from the Urals to Azov ports and over 3,000 km from Western Siberia.”

SovEcon also raised its barley crop estimate to 19.0 MMT (from 18.7 MMT in August), while leaving its corn forecast unchanged at 13.4 MMT. Total grain and pulse production is now projected at 134.9 MMT, compared with 130.5 MMT previously.